RUSSIA: MNI CBR Preview – September 2025

Core categories leaned soft vs expectations. As noted, shelter prices were roughly in line with expectations.

• Looking at core goods, they were much softer than expected at 0.21% vs 0.39% MNI median - and that's despite a higher-than-anticipated 0.48% M/M rise in used car prices (0.30% expected) for the fastest rise in 5 months after 4 months of sharp deflation.
• Overall ex-used vehicles goods inflation came in at 0.17%, about half of June's rate (0.32%) though still elevated by historical comparison (averaged 0.0% in the 12 months prior to June).
• Apparel prices were soft at 0.07% M/M (0.5% expected), with medical care commodities and new vehicle prices flat M/M (albeit the first non-negative reading in 4 months). Household furnishings and supplies - another tariff-sensitive area - rose 0.7% but that was a little softer than the 1.0% printed prior.
• Core services were on the high side at 0.36% M/M (0.29% expected) however, with strength in airfares (4.0% M/M vs 1.5% expected) which recall comes from PPI for the PCE report; conversely lodging remained soft at -1.0% (flat expected) with auto insurance roughly in line at 0.1%.
• There was some strength in medical care services however, which picked up to 0.8% M/M (0.6% prior), led by dental (2.6%) and professional medical services (0.8%). These were some of the largest rises in years in these categories - for dental it was a record high and came after +1.3%, notable for a PCE-input category.
• Communications were soft at -0.3% for a 3-month low after 0.0% prior.

• SFRU5 96.12c, bought for 2 in 4k.
• SFRZ5 96.25/96.37/96.50/96.62c condor, bought for 3.5 in 5k.

• Building permits in June -9% to CAD12B led by decline in Ontario's institutional component (-CAD1.4B).
• Non-residential permits in June -15% to CAD4.9B from a peak of CAD5.8B in May.
• Residential permits -4.3% in June to CAD7.1B. The drop was driven by British Columbia's multi-family unit after leading the sectoral increase in May.
• On constant dollar basis, permits -9.5% in June. Nominal permits +11.1% YOY.
• Q2 permits down by CAD1.9B after five straight monthly gains. The decline was driven by residential sector. Non-residential sector rose to a record high of CAD15B in Q2.