MNI BOE Preview - May 2024: Another Step on the Path to Cuts
May-08 05:22
- There will be three factors that markets will pay attention to at the MPC’s May decision: the vote, the guidance and the forecasts.
- The MNI Markets team’s base case is for another 8-1 vote with Dhingra the sole dissenter. However, we see around a 25% probability that Ramsden joins her in voting for an immediate cut at the May meeting.
- We look at potential changes to the Bank's forwarrd guidance.
- We expect CPI forecasts of 1.9-2.0% in 2 years and around 1.7% in 3 years. Any deviations to this could prompt market moves.
- Markets are pricing almost no risk of an immediate policy change at this meeting, with Bank Rate expected to remain at 5.25% and QT already on a pre-set pace until after the September MPC meeting.
For the full preview see:
