NATGAS: Mid-Day Gas Summary: TTF Rises
Dec-05 12:37
TTF front month has gained ground, with cold weather next week in western Europe weighed against surging LNG import volumes. Meanwhile, storage withdrawals hold near normal.
- TTF JAN 25 up 0.7% at 47.38€/MWh
- Barriers erected to Russian gas “directly hurt economic growth and people’s wellbeing in different regions of the world”
- Above normal temperature in western Europe this week will give way to cold weather next week. The month ahead forecast suggests the below normal temperatures could then extend through to January.
- European LNG sendout has surged this week to the highest since January at 420.8mcm/d on Dec. 3 compared to an average of 352mcm/d over the previous week, according to Bloomberg.
- Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe have recovered up to 338.5mcm/d today, according to Bloomberg.
- European gas storage withdrawals are holding near normal with total stores down to 84.16% full on Dec. 3, according to GIE compared to the previous five-year average of 86.3%.
- BP’s Tangguh LNG Train 3, Indonesia is expected to return to normal in the coming days after a disruption last month the countries upstream regulator announced.
- The Biden administration’s plans to release its highly anticipated LNG study in mid-Dec according to the Energy Department.
- LNG ships into the Dragon and South Hook terminals could be delayed with winds over 60mph forecast for UK Milford Haven this weekend, according to ICIS.
- UAE’s Adnoc has agreed to a sales and purchase agreement to supply 1mtpa of LNG to Malaysia’s Petronas for 15 years, according to Bloomberg.
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ITALY DATA: Familiar Industry-Level Divergence Signalled In Bank of Italy Survey
Nov-05 12:30
The Bank of Italy’s latest Business Outlook Survey of Industrial and Services Firms points to further growth in the services industry but continued weakness in manufacturing. These signals are consistent with recent PMI and flash GDP data. A few excerpts of note from the release:
- “Manufacturing was mainly affected by the performance of exports, which reflected a weak manufacturing cycle in the euro area, particularly in Germany”.
- “Firms expect both domestic and foreign sales to grow over the next six months”.
- “The number of hours worked continued to rise in services and slowed down in manufacturing; in both sectors, firms expect it to climb higher over the next six months”.
- “Borrowing conditions, which had worsened significantly over the last two years, are seen as improving, but assessments of stability still prevail”.
- “For 2025, firms anticipate a further expansion across all sectors except for textiles, clothing and footwear. The adoption of generative artificial intelligence in business processes is expected to rise over the next 12 months”.
US ELECTIONS: Election Day Schedules For Harris & Trump Campaigns
Nov-05 12:29
With polls opening across the United States, the presidential campaigns of VP Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are in their last few hours of operation.
- On the Republican side of the campaign, Trump is spending election day in Palm Beach, Florida, the site of his Mar-a-Lago Club. He will then hold an election night watch party at Palm Beach County Convention Center. His running mate, Sen. JD Vance (R-OH) has no public schedule at present.
- On the Democratic side, Harris is set to participate in radio interviews in all seven swing states (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin) before holding a watch party at Howard University in Washington, D.C., Her vice-presidential running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, holds a final speaking engagement in Harrisburg, PA at 1130ET/1630GMT before travelling to D.C., for the Howard U watch party.
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Trend Needle In Gilts Points South
Nov-05 12:25
- In the FI space, a bearish theme in Bund futures remains intact. Price has breached 132.58, the Oct 22 low. The break, together with the subsequent extension, confirms a resumption of the downtrend that started early October and signals scope for a continuation near-term. Sights are on the 131.00 handle next, the Jul 26 low. On the upside, initial key resistance has been defined at 132.65, the Sep 2 low.
- A steep sell-off in Gilt futures last week, confirmed a resumption of the current downtrend. The contract has traded through the 94.00 handle and sights are set on 92.99 next, a 2.00 projection of the Sep 17 - 30 - Oct 1 price swing. Moving average studies remain in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. On the upside, the Oct 30 high of 96.65, is seen as a key short-term resistance where a break is required to highlight a possible short-term base. Initial resistance is 94.73, the Nov 1 high.
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