US NATGAS: Northeast Natgas Fundamentals
Northeast Natgas Fundamentals
The total supply-demand balance today shows a deficit of around 1.48 bcf/d, narrowing from a 3.49 bcf/d deficit the previous day.
- Northeast demand is at 36.73 bcf/d, down by around 2.77 bcf/d. Demand is 2.54bcf/d below the 30-day average.
- End user demand is down 3 bcf/d to 12.96 bcf/d. This compares to the 30-day average of 15.58 bcf/d.
- To the east, compared to the previous GFS 15-day forecast, NYC added 12 CDDs, for a total of 229 CDDs. This is 38 greater than the 10-year normal.
- To the west, compared to the previous GFS 15-day forecast, Columbus OH added 7 CDDs, for a total of 7 CDDs. This is 1 CDDs more than the 10-year normal
- Production in the Northeast is around 35.66 bcf/d, down around 0.15 bcf/d on the day.
- Production in Appalachia is around 35.06 bcf/d, down around 0.27 bcf/d on the day.
- Feedgas exports to Cove Point LNG stand at 730 mcf/d , down around 94 mcf/d today. This is below the 30-day average of 813 mcf/d.
- The NE region refers to New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, West Virginia, and Maryland. All flow and production data are from Bloomberg.
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GBPUSD TECHS: Monitoring Support
- RES 4: 1.3852 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing
- RES 3: 1.3835 High Oct 20 2021
- RES 2: 1.3800 Round number resistance
- RES 1: 1.3789 High Jul 01
- PRICE: 1.3599 @ 16:10 BST Jul 2
- SUP 1: 1.3586/63 20-day EMA / Low Jul 02
- SUP 2: 1.3439 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.3338 Trendline support drawn from the Jan 13 low
- SUP 4: 1.3140 Low May 12 and key support
A bull cycle in GBPUSD remains in play and a fresh cycle high Tuesday reinforces bullish conditions. This maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant medium-term uptrend. Today’s move lower appears to be a correction. Support to watch lies at 1.3586, the 20-day EMA. A break would signal scope for a deeper corrective pullback.
FED: MNI Hawk-Dove Spectrum Eyes End-2026 Rate Views (3/3)
Our FOMC Hawk-Dove Spectrum has shifted since pre-June FOMC to reflect some of the latest commentary on future easing. This is based in part on where we think (or in the case of Bostic and Kashkari, we know) they penciled in end-2026 rates in the June SEP (recall the median was 3.6%).
- We had to pick a "1 cut through end-2026" candidate and that is probably Logan, Hammack or Schmid - we guess the latter.
- Likewise despite Goolsbee not being the biggest dove for 2025, we think he probably continues to have the most dovish rate profile overall, with Bowman and Waller conversely front-loading their cuts.
- The Board is likely split largely between 3.4% and 3.6% end-2026, implying that most are eyeing 1-2 cuts in 2026 on top of 2 cuts by end-2025.
FED: Educated Guess On 2025 Dots Has Board Clustered At Median (2/3)
The MNI Markets Team's educated "guess" as to the June SEP submissions for the 2025 end-year dot is below. Note the median for end-2025 is 3.9% (2 cuts).
- Kashkari and Bostic have publicly revealed their "dots" for 2025 (and the case of the latter two, 2026), while Daly and Collins have implied theirs.
- Most of the Board are in the 2-cut median camp. Governors Cook and Jefferson haven't commented on monetary policy since the June FOMC meeting. At a guess, Gov Kugler is only board member who doesn't eye cuts this year, though that could also be Gov Barr, or Gov Cook who said pre-June FOMC that all possibilities, including hikes, were possible.
- Two of the more hawkish members, St Louis's Musalem (2025 voter) and Dallas's Logan (2026 voter) also haven't spoken on current monetary policy since the June meeting, though are scheduled to make relevant commentary on July 10 and July 15, respectively. We assume they are "no-cutters" for this year.
- We also haven't heard from new Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson (2026 voter) yet, though her predecessor Patrick Harker could easily have been any of 1, 2, or 3 cuts for 2025. We have him here as a rate-cut skeptic (in his last public appearance he suggested that the direction of the next move rates itself was a question).
