EU REAL ESTATE: Merlin (MRLSM: Baa1/BBB+) 1Q25
Stable. No need to come to bond markets.
• EBITDA EU102m +8.9% yoy
• FFO EU84.2m +16.9% yoy
• Total Revenue EU138m +2.7% lfl rental growth
• LTV low at 28.5%
• EU600m matures 26th May: MRLSM 1.75% 25. Will be repaid with available cash. (Has EU1.59bn cash). Nov ’26 is next bond. Signed EU100m bilateral loan in March at ms+115bps.
• Offices: occupancy 93.8%. 2.9% lfl rental growth.
• Logistics: occupancy 99.4%. 1.8% rental growth.
• Shopping centres: 96.1% occupancy. 2.8% rental growth.
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Historical bullets
EURJPY TECHS: Trend Outlook Remains Bullish
- RES 4: 165.43 High Nov 8
- RES 3: 164.90 High Dec 30 ‘24 and a key medium-term resistance
- RES 2: 164.55 High Jan 7
- RES 1: 163.55/164.19 Intraday high / High Mar 18 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 162.68 @ 07:09 GMT Apr 14
- SUP 1: 160.98/158.30 50-day EMA / Low Apr 7
- SUP 2: 157.02 76.4% retracement of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 155.60 Low Low Mar 4
- SUP 4: 154.80 Low Low Feb 28
Recent weakness in EURJPY appears corrective and the strong rally from the Apr 7 low reinforces a bullish theme. Key short-term support has been defined at 158.30, the low on Apr 7. A break of this level is required to signal scope for a deeper retracement. This would open 157.02, a Fibonacci retracement. For bulls, a continuation higher would expose 164.19, the Mar 18 high and the bull trigger.
BRENT TECHS: (M5) Trend Structure Remains Bearish
- RES 4: $77.75 - High Jan 20
- RES 3: $76.26 - High Feb 20
- RES 2: $70.83/75.47 - 50-day EMA / High Apr 2 and a bull trigger
- RES 1: $67.95 - Low Mar 5
- PRICE: $64.89 @ 06:56 BST Apr 14
- SUP 1: $58.40 - Low Apr 9
- SUP 2: $58.85 - 2.000 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
- SUP 3: $56.89 - 2.236 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
- SUP 4: $55.00 - Round number support
Brent futures continue to trade above last week’s high. For now, the latest bounce is considered corrective and this is allowing a recent oversold condition to unwind. The primary trend direction remains down and a resumption of weakness would open $56.89, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, initial firm resistance to watch is seen at $67.95, the Mar 5 low. Resistance at the 50-day EMA, is at $70.83.
GILT TECHS: (M5) Bearish Threat Remains Present
- RES 4: 94.50 High Apr 7 and key resistance
- RES 3: 93.00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 92.63 High Apr 8
- RES 1: 91.84 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 90.64 @ Close Apr 11
- SUP 1: 90.47/89.99 Low Apr 11 / 9
- SUP 2: 89.68 Low Jan 15 (cont)
- SUP 3: 88.96 Low Jan 13 and a key support
- SUP 4: 88.00 Round number support
A sharp sell-off in Gilt futures last week highlights a strong bearish theme. The contract has breached 90.55, the Mar 27 low. Clearance of this level confirms a full reversal of the Mar 27 - Apr 7 rally. Sights are on the 90.00 handle next, briefly pierced on Apr 9. A clear break of this level would signal scope for an extension towards a key support at 88.96, the Jan 13 low on the continuation chart. Initial resistance is at 91.84, the 20-day EMA.
