EQUITIES: Medium-Term Trend Direction in Eurostoxx 50 Futures Remains Up
The medium-term trend direction in the Eurostoxx 50 futures contract remains up and the latest pullback appears corrective. However, support at the 50-day EMA, at 5311.01, has been pierced. A clear break of this average would highlight a strong short-term bear threat and suggest scope for a deeper retracement. This would open 5202.00, a Fibonacci retracement. For bulls, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on the 5600.00 handle. A bear threat in S&P E-Minis remains present and fresh cycle lows this week reinforce current conditions. MA studies are in a bear-mode set-up and this highlights a dominant downtrend and bearish market sentiment. Sights are set on the next important support at 5499.25, the Sep 9 2024 low. Note that the short-term trend condition is oversold, a corrective bounce would allow this set-up to unwind. Firm resistance to watch is 5949.30, the 50-day EMA.
- Japan's NIKKEI closed lower by 29.06 pts or -0.08% at 36790.03 and the TOPIX ended 3.45 pts higher or +0.13% at 2698.36.
- Elsewhere, in China the SHANGHAI closed lower by 13.195 pts or -0.39% at 3358.729 and the HANG SENG ended 137.66 pts lower or -0.58% at 23462.65.
- Across Europe, Germany's DAX trades lower by 144.84 pts or -0.64% at 22531.57, FTSE 100 higher by 5.86 pts or +0.07% at 8546.97, CAC 40 down 26.32 pts or -0.33% at 7962.15 and Euro Stoxx 50 down 20.34 pts or -0.38% at 5339.08.
- Dow Jones mini down 178 pts or -0.43% at 41218, S&P 500 mini down 35.25 pts or -0.63% at 5569.5, NASDAQ mini down 170.25 pts or -0.87% at 19447.75.
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BOE: Mann initial highlights
- "It is not just the immediate policy decision that needs to be communicated. Providing insights on the future path matters for the activist policy maker. Notwithstanding the 50 basis point cut now, structural impediments to achieving the target on a sustained basis are not yet fully purged. The activist policymaker needs to maintain policy rate discipline and restrictiveness even after this immediate decision. This ensures that, as we move through the inflation hump, expectations remain anchored both in the near and longer term."
- "I expect that Bank Rate will average well above the nominal equilibrium rate implied by the estimates set out in the August 2018 Inflation Report. I note that respondents in our Market Participants’ Survey have been consistent in putting this longer-run average at about 3-3½ percent."
- "I chose 50 basis points now, along with continued restrictiveness in the future, and a higher long-term Bank Rate to 1) ‘cut through the noise’, 2) anchor expectations through the inflation hump, and 3) acknowledge structural impediments and macroeconomic volatility in longer term."
USDCAD TECHS: Trading Above Support
- RES 4: 1.5000 Psychological round number
- RES 3: 1.4948 High Mar 2003
- RES 2: 1.4814 High Apr 2003
- RES 1: 1.4600/1.4793 Round number resistance / High Feb 3
- PRICE: 1.4329 @ 08:30 GMT Feb 11
- SUP 1: 1.4270 Low Feb 5
- SUP 2: 1.4261 Low Jan 20 and a key support
- SUP 3: 1.4178 High Nov 6 ‘24
- SUP 4: 1.4120 Low Dec 11
USDCAD is trading closer to last week’s lows. For now, the latest move down appears corrective and the primary uptrend remains intact. The Feb 3 cycle high reinforces and strengthens bullish conditions. The break higher confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and opens 1.4814 next, the Apr 2003 high. Key support to watch lies at 1.4261, the Jan 20 low. A clear breach of this level would alter the picture and signal a reversal.
JPY: A quick 30 pips drop in USDJPY
- Not seen a clear new trigger for this sudden 30 pips move in the Yen, clearly a Yen targeted move with similar bid going through versus the Pound, AUD, and the EUR.
- Looking at the CME, JPY saw its best traded buying volume for day on that spike, albeit still below averages volumes.
- The lower liquidity may have helped exacerbate some of the moves.
- Nonetheless, USDJPY still trades in a fairly limited range and off its printed low.
