AUSSIE 10-YEAR TECHS: (M5) Near-Term Weakness
- RES 3: 96.501 - 76.4% of the Mar 14 - Nov 1 ‘23 bear leg
- RES 2: 96.207 - 61.8% of the Mar 14 - Nov 1 ‘23 bear leg
- RES 1: 95.960 - High Apr 7
- PRICE: 95.490 @ 15:20 BST May 14
- SUP 1: 95.420/95.300 - Low Feb 13 / Low Jan 14
- SUP 2: 95.275 - Low Nov 14 (cont) and a key support
- SUP 3: 94.819 - 1.0% 10-dma envelope
Moving in lockstep with Treasuries, Aussie 10-yr futures maintain near-term weakness, pressuring prices through to new pullback lows on Wednesday. Next support undercuts at 95.420, the Feb 13 low, ahead of 275, the Nov 14 low and a key support. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bearish condition. To the upside, a recovery of last week’s losses would shift attention to resistance at 96.207, a Fibonacci retracement point.
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US: Tsy Secretary Bessent Plays Down Recent Bond Market Turmoil
US Tsy Secretary Scott Bessent made remarks from Argentina earlier (via BBG TV). He played down concerns over recent bond market volatility, stating there was no evidence of sovereign sales of USTs. He added that the Treasury has a big toolkit to deal with market turmoil but such a scenario is a long way off from being needed. See this BBG link for more details.
- Among the headline highlights: "*BESSENT: NO EVIDENCE OF SOVEREIGN SALES OF US TREASURIES, *BESSENT: SAW INCREASED FOREIGN COMPETITION AT US DEBT AUCTIONS, *BESSENT: WE'RE A LONG WAY FROM 'BREAK THE GLASS' SITUATION, *BESSENT: TREASURY HAS BIG TOOLKIT, COULD BOOST BUYBACKS "
- "*BESSENT: DOLLAR IS STILL A GLOBAL RESERVE CURRENCY, *BESSENT: STILL HAVE A STRONG-DOLLAR POLICY"
- On trade talks: "*BESSENT: THERE WILL BE A FIRST-MOVER ADVANTAGE ON TRADE TALKS, *BESSENT: OTHERS WILL WANT PROTECTION AGAINST CHINA EXPORT FLOOD, *BESSENT: DOESN'T HAVE TO BE DECOUPLING WITH CHINA, BUT COULD BE"
- On Fed: "*BESSENT: AGREE ABOUT 6 MTHS BEFORE THINKING ON POWELL SUCCESSOR, "*BESSENT: AGREE ABOUT 6 MTHS BEFORE THINKING ON POWELL SUCCESSOR" BBG
US TSYS: Some Relief
Overnight the 10yr yield had a range of 4.3583% - 4.4816%, closing near the lows around 4.37%. Treasuries found some relief and rallied most of the day. Risk appetite was stoked by Trump’s decision to exempt certain technology products, and the price action pointed to money being put back to work.
- President Trump said he is exploring possible exemptions on imported vehicles and parts, to give auto makers more time to set up US manufacturing.
- The Fed’s Waller said the impacts of the tariffs on inflation would be temporary. He also described the new policy as “one of the biggest shocks” on the US economy in decades, the effects of which are highly uncertain.
- The market will be relieved to see US yields finally get some reprieve, the next support is around 4.25/30% and expect supply to return down there.
- TYM5 closed at 110-24, up +1-00 on the day.
AUSSIE 3-YEAR TECHS: (M5) Within Range of Highs
- RES 3: 97.190 - High May 5 2023
- RES 2: 96.932 - 76.4% of Mar-Nov ‘23 bear leg
- RES 1: 96.860 - High Apr 07
- PRICE: 96.660 @ 15:39 GMT Apr 14
- SUP 1: 95.900 - Low Jan 14
- SUP 2: 95.760 - Low 14 Nov ‘24
- SUP 3: 95.480 - Low Jan 11 2023 and a major support
Aussie 3-yr futures ripped to new contract highs again to begin last week - clearing resistance on the continuation contract. The rally has taken out resistance at 96.730, the Sep 17 ‘24 high. On the downside, any reversal lower from current levels would signal a resumption of a downtrend. A deeper sell-off would refocus attention on 95.760, the 14 Nov ‘24 low.
