SCHATZ TECHS: (M5) MA Studies Highlight An Uptrend

• RES 4: 1.3274 High Oct 3 ‘24  
• RES 3: 1.3207 High Apr 3 and the bull trigger   
• RES 2: 1.3017 61.8% retracement of the Apr 3 - 7 sell-off
• RES 1: 1.2899 38.2% retracement of the Apr 3 - 7 sell-off      
• PRICE: 1.2776 @ 06:09 BST Apr 8
• SUP 1: 1.2709 Low Apr 7
• SUP 2: 1.2669 2.0% 10-dma envelope 
• SUP 3: 1.2654 50.0% retracement of the Jan 13 - Apr 3 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 1.2559 Low Feb 28 

GBPUSD traded sharply lower Monday, extending the retracement from the Apr 3 high. For now, the sell-off appears corrective. Price has traded below the 50-day EMA - a concern for bulls - however, MA studies are in a bull mode position and this highlights a dominant uptrend. A recovery would open 1.2899 and 1.3017, Fibonacci retracement points. A move through Monday's 1.2709 low, would instead signal scope for a deeper retracement.

TYM5 is 112-04+, +0-03 from closing levels in today's Asia-Pac session.

• Cash US tsys are showing a bull-steepener, with benchmark yields 2-5bps lower, in today's Asia-Pac session after yesterday's extremely heavy session.
• “Even 'safe haven' trades like Treasurys are falling on Trump's tariffs. What does that tell investors?” (DJ see BBG link)
• “The recent US bond market selloff may appear linked to an increase in risk appetite, however simultaneous high yield US credit spread widening suggests otherwise, according to Citigroup. Investors may instead opt for alternative G-10 sovereign debt, such as that from Europe and Australia.” (per BBG)
• Economic data remains light ahead of key releases later this week. Markets are looking ahead to Wednesday's release of the March FOMC minutes, followed by CPI data on Thursday and PPI on Friday.

A large inflow into Taiwan after their break as global Investors continue to withdraw from Korea with another day of significant outflow from Malaysia. 

• South Korea: Recorded outflows of -$1,552m as of yesterday, bringing the 5-day total to -$4,773m. 2025 to date flows are -$10,082, m. The 5-day average is -$955m, the 20-day average is -$287m and the 100-day average of -$147m.
• Taiwan: Had inflows of +$1,291m as of yesterday, with total outflows of -$552m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are negative at -$16,956. The 5-day average is -$110m, the 20-day average of -$402m and the 100-day average of -$236m.
• India: Had outflows of -$367m as of 4th, with total outflows of -$630m over the past 5 days.  YTD flows are negative -$14,373m.  The 5-day average is -$126m, the 20-day average of +$17m and the 100-day average of -$145m.
• Indonesia: Had inflows of $38m as of the 27/3, with total inflows of +$54m over the prior five days.  YTD flows are negative -$1,830m.  The 5-day average is +$11m, the 20-day average -$33m and the 100-day average -$34m
• Thailand: Recorded outflows of -$185m the 4th, totaling -$202m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are negative at -$1,331m. The 5-day average is -$40m, the 20-day average of -$34m the 100-day average of -$19m.
• Malaysia: Recorded outflows of -$237m as of yesterday, totaling -$419m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are negative at -$2,575m. The 5-day average is -$84m, the 20-day average of -$64m the 100-day average of -$39m.
• Philippines: Saw outflows of -$56m as of yesterday, with net outflows of -$71m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are negative at -$285m. The 5-day average is -$14m, the 20-day average of -$2m the 100-day average of -$6m.