US TSYS/SUPPLY: Lowest Indirect Take For A 30Y Since 2019
May-08 17:10
* Adding to the above, the indirect take of 58.88%, a proxy for foreign demand, is the lowest for ...
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POLITICAL RISK: Italy’s Meloni To Meet Trump On Apr 17
Apr-08 17:07
- AFP reports that Italian PM Meloni will meet US President Trump on Apr 17.
- They quote her as: “"This is the negotiation that must see us all engaged and at all levels... and that involves me, who will be in Washington on April 17 and obviously I intend to address this issue with the US president,"”
- Bloomberg had previously touted Apr 16. See our broader political risk team's post after the Bloomberg report earlier, here.
- It sees a visit two days after part of potential retaliatory EU tariffs are placed on US imports.
US TSYS/SUPPLY: Review: 3Y Auction - Another Tail
Apr-08 17:07
- Still weaker, Treasury futures pare move off low after $58B 3Y note auction (91282CMW8) tails 2.4bp tail, drawing 3.784% high yield vs. 3.760% WI; 2.47x bid-to-cover vs. 2.70x prior.
- Peripheral stats see indirect take-up climb to 73.03% vs. 62.5% prior; direct bidder take-up 6.24% from 26.0% prior; primary dealer take-up 20.73% vs. 11.5% prior.
- The next 3Y auction is tentatively scheduled for May 5.
FOREX: Sharp Swings for AUD Persist amid China Tariff Turmoil
Apr-08 17:06
- Today’s session was categorised by a tale of two halves, with initial equity optimism boosting the higher beta currencies in G10, before a sharp souring of sentiment prompted a significant turnaround for the likes of AUD & NZD. Overall, the dollar index remains close to unchanged, with a lot of the focus remaining on the JPY and CHF crosses, given they remain a strong barometer for global risk sentiment.
- Specifically for AUDUSD, the most recent turn lower for equities has certainly sapped the overnight enthusiasm, prompting the pair to almost entirely erode the prior 1.5% advance. The turnaround for risk was exacerbated by the USTR's Greer stating that tariff exemptions will not come through in the near-term, and late confirmation that 104% tariffs on China would be implemented from April 09.
- Earlier 0.6085 highs fell short of initial resistance, which stands at 0.6127, and technical conditions remain firmly in bearish territory. Yesterday’s low print of 0.5933 matched closely with an initial technical support, the 1.764 projection of the Sep 30 - Nov 6/7 price swing. This will remain the key short-term mark on the downside.
- USDJPY is also substantially off the overnight highs, located at 148.12. The pair maintains a bearish tone following last week’s sharp sell-off and the Monday recovery is - for now - considered corrective. A resumption of the downtrend and a break of Friday’s 144.56 low would signal scope for an extension towards 144.13, a Fibonacci retracement point.
- Amid the deterioration of the US/China trade relationship, USDCNH has been pushing fresh record highs today, at 7.3930 at typing. Market moves follow the push higher for the USD/CNY midpoint fix overnight - at 7.2038, the CFETS fix was the highest since Sept'23 and not far off the highest fix on record from late 2022 at 7.2555.
- Calendar focus turns to the RBNZ decision on Wednesday, before the market’s attention shifts to US inflation data, scheduled on Thursday.
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