JAPAN: LDP-Ishin Talks Could Pave Way For Takaichi's Election As PM
Oct-15 14:13
A meeting between the leaders of the libertarian-federalist Japan Innovation Party (Ishin) and governing Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) President Sanae Takaichi may increase the chances of a governing coalition that could ensure Takaichi's election as PM on 21 October. Ishin leader and Osaka Governor Hirofumi Yoshimura said that Takaichi had asked for support in the Diet vote to elect a new PM, with the prospect of forming a governing coalition.
- Yoshimura said that Takaichi, Ishin co-leader Fumitake Fujita and their respective policy chiefs will hold a meeting tomorrow at 15:00JST (02:00ET, 07:00BST), outlining that policy agreements must come before any PM confirmation/coalition talks. The Ishin leader said that if terms can be reached, it would be for a coalition gov't, not Ishin propping up a minority LDP administration.
- Adds that he believes both parties have an alignment on fundamental national policies, and that Takaichi seemed open to addressing Ishin's key issues, such as a reduction in the social insurance fee, and the vision of a second national capital city.
- Fujita said Ishin lawmakers will discuss the prospect of backing Takaichi and a coalition at a party meeting taking place at 08:00JST (19:00ET, 00:00BST) on 16 Oct.
- Yoshimura confirms that talks with the other opposition parties will continue at the same time as the LDP talks, and that policy disagreements between the Constitutional Democratic Party and Democratic Party for the People is hindering work towards a joint PM candidate. Indeed, Asahi now reports Takaichi as 'likely to be elected PM'.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
GOLD: Last Tuesday's ATH Still Intact For Gold; Spot Up 0.35% Today
Sep-15 14:04
A fresh extension higher for gold prices has now faded, leaving spot up 0.35% on the session at $3,655/oz after peaking at $3,664 around 30 minutes ago.
- Initial resistance remains Tuesday’s all-time high of $3,674. Clearance of this level would expose round number resistance at $3,700.
- There hasn’t been an obvious headline driver for today’s modest gold rally. Instead, we suggest that positioning ahead of the Fed’s likely 25bp rate cut on Wednesday is factoring into price action, potentially alongside well-established Fed independence concerns following US President Trump’s latest calls for lower rates.
- A reminder that the US Senate will hold a cloture vote on Stephen Miran's Fed Board nomination at around 17:30 ET / 22:30 BST, with a full confirmation vote likely to take place at roughly 20:00 ET / 01:00 BST. Despite some reservations from institutionalist Senate Republicans, there is not expected to be any GOP opposition.
- Separately, we note that considerations around a physical gold trading tax in Thailand (due to domestic FX concerns) has not had a material impact on spot prices today.
SOFR OPTIONS: Call Spread vs Put Spread
Sep-15 14:01
SFRV5 96.43/96.62cs vs 96.25/96.12ps, bought the cs for 1 in 4k.
EUROZONE DATA: Soft Imports Take Some Of The Edge Off A Solid June [2/2]
Sep-15 13:52
- The modest widening in the surplus came as imports (-0.8% M/M) fell by more than exports (-0.1% M/M).
- It sees imports unwind part of the 3.0% M/M increase in June in what was a rare solid reading compared to recent months.
- An important caveat when it comes to digging into import details for domestic demand implications -- the miscellaneous category again shows a surge but this was revised away last month as these unclassified items are eventually correctly allocated.
- Specifically, the miscellaneous category surged 172% from to E6.8bn in Aug from a typical E2.5bn in July, with the latter initially reported at E7.1bn.
- With that in mind, monthly declines are currently seen as being led by the typically volatile raw materials category (-7.5% M/M) along with manufactured goods (-2.8%) and food, drinks & tobacco (-1.8%).
- We tend to focus on machinery & transport within manufactured goods, and this currently shows a disappointing -2.6% M/M to undo a sizeable part of June’s 4.0% increase. In doing so, it crimped annual growth in this nominal category to just 2.5% Y/Y.
