US: Latest Trump Headlines

• US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
• 22-May 0800 Richmond Fed Barkin fireside chat (no text, Q&A)
• 22-May 0830 Initial Jobless Claims (229k, 230k)
• 22-May 0830 Continuing Claims (1.881M, 1.883M)
• 22-May 0830 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index (-.03, -0.25)
• 22-May 0945 S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI (50.2, 49.9)
• 22-May 0945 S&P Global US Services PMI (50.8, 51.0)
• 22-May 0945 S&P Global US Composite PMI (50.6, 50.3)
• 22-May 1000 Existing Home Sales (4.02M, 4.10M), MoM (-5.9%, 2.0%)
• 22-May 1100 Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity (-4, -5)
• 22-May 1130 US Tsy $85B 4W & $75B 8W bill auctions
• 22-May 1300 US Tsy $18B 10Y TIPS auction
• 22-May 1400 NY Fed Williams keynote remarks NY Fed event (text, Q&A)

• RES 4: 0.5682 High Nov 12 ‘24  
• RES 3: 0.6550 61.8% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Apr 9 bear leg
• RES 2: 0.6528 High Nov 29 ‘24
• RES 1: 0.6515 High May 7 
• PRICE: 0.6465 @ 16:18 BST May 21
• SUP 1: 0.6362 50-day EMA   
• SUP 2: 0.6275 Low Apr 14    
• SUP 3: 0.6181 Low Apr 11
• SUP 4: 0.6116 Low Apr 10  

AUDUSD traded higher into the close, and has largely reversed the RBA-tripped weakness seen into the Tuesday close. This keeps the trend condition bullish and the May 13 rally signals the end of the recent corrective pullback. Attention is on key resistance at 0.6515, the May 7 high. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting an uptrend. A resumption of the trend would open 0.6550, a Fibonacci retracement. Key support lies at 0.6362, the 50-day EMA. 

Aside from a large scale buyer of Jun'25 SOFR calls, flow leaned towards low delta put structures Wednesday as underlying futures weaker, near lows while projected rate cut pricing drifts near early morning levels (*) as follows: Jun'25 at -1.4bp (-0.5bp), Jul'25 at -7bp (-6.7bp), Sep'25 at -20.8bp (-19.6bp), Oct'25 at -33.5bp (-33.7bp), Dec'25 at -50.6bp (-50.7bp).

• SOFR Options:
  • over +100,000 SFRM5 96.50 calls, 0.5
  • -4,000 SFRZ5 95.87/96.00 put spds, 5.75
  • +3,000 0QX5 96.00 puts, 10.5 ref 96.62
  • +20,000 SFRZ5 95.37/95.62 put spds, 1.5 ref 96.17
  • -6,000 SFRU5 95.81 / SFRZ5 95.68 put spds, 5.0 net/Sep over
  • -2,500 SFRM5 95.75 puts, 8.25 ref 95.68
  • +4,000 0QM5 96.25 puts, 2.5 vs. 96.53
  • -2,000 2QZ5 95.75/97.25 strangles, 20.75 ref 96.43
  • Block 5,000 SFRU5 96.12/96.37 call spds, 3.5 ref 95.89
  • 1,900 SFRM5 95.68/95.75/95.81 call flys ref 95.68
  • 2,600 SFRM5 95.75/95.87 2x1 put spds ref 95.68
  • +6,000 SFRM5 95.68 puts, 2.5
  • 2,000 SFRM5 95.75 put vs. 0QN5 96.12 put, 0.5 net flattener
  • +1,000 SFRM5 95.50/95.68 2x1 put spds cab
  • +5,000 0QM5 96.12 puts, 1.0 vs. 96.575 to -.58/0.05%
  • -2,000 2QN5 96.43 puts, 14.5 vs. 96.50/0.44%
• Treasury Options:
  • 11,491 TYN5 100/108.5/110 broken put flys ref 109-28
  • 3,800 FVU5 106.25/107.5 2x1 put spds ref 107-18.75
  • 2,000 FVM5 107.5/107.75 call spds 6 ref 107-16.5
  • +25,000 TYN5 111.5 calls, 18 vs. 109-28/0.20%, appr 6.78% vol (total volume over 58k on day
  • -3,500 TYN5 110 straddles, 143, appr 6.63% vol
  • 1,250 USM5 112/USN5 109 put spds
  • 20,000 TYM5 110.5/111 call spds, 2 ref 109-29
  • over 3,300 USN5 109 puts, 50 ref 111-19
  • +8,000 TYM5 111/112/113 call flys, 1.0
  • (another 3k TYM5 112 calls, 1 ref 109-30)
  • +5,000 TYM5 109.5 puts, 6
  • +3,000 TYU5 107.5 puts, 41-42
  • +3,000 FVM5 108 calls, 2