USDCAD TECHS: Corrective Cycle
- RES 4: 1.4111 High Apr 4
- RES 3: 1.4016 High May 12 and 13 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 1.3832/1.3920 50-day EMA / High May 21
- RES 1: 1.3747 High Jun 19
- PRICE: 1.3733 @ 16:23 BST Jun 20
- SUP 1: 1.3540/3521 Low Jun 16 / 1.0% 10-dma envelope
- SUP 2: 1.3503 1.618 proj of the Feb 3 - 14 - Mar 4 price swing
- SUP 3: 1.3473 Low Oct 2 2024
- SUP 4: 1.3410 1.764 proj of the Feb 3 - 14 - Mar 4 price swing
The trend needle in USDCAD points south and this week’s recovery is considered corrective. Resistance at the 20-day EMA, at 1.3710, has been pierced. A continuation higher would signal scope for a stronger retracement and expose pivot resistance at the 50-day EMA, at 1.3832. For bears, a reversal lower and a resumption of the downtrend would pave the way for an extension towards 1.3521, envelope-based support.
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US TSYS: Massive Deficit Estimates Tied to Tax/Spending Bill Weighing on Bonds
- Treasuries look to finish near late Wednesday session lows, curves bear steepening: 2s10s +6.792 at 58.019 - highest level since May 1. Heavier volumes tied to Jun/Sep Tsy futures rolls, 5s well over 1M.
- No economic data, headline or outright flow to site for the move other than trepidation over Pres Trump's tax & spending bill estimated to increase the deficit appr $3.3 trillion over 10 years. Lawmakers continued to debate the bill and passage remained uncertain despite Pre Trump personally haranguing GOP holdouts.
- Treasury futures extend session lows after the $16B 20Y Bond auction (912810UL0) tailed, drawing a high yield of 5.047% vs 5.035% When-Issued yield at the cutoff; 2.46x bid-to-cover vs. 2.63x prior. Bonds yield climbed to 5.0955% intraday high - last seen late October 2023. 10Y yield up to 4.5825% (+.0956).
- The Jun'25 10Y futures contract slipped to 109-13.5 low (-25) briefly -- through initial technical support at 109-18.5 (May 15 low) before bouncing to 109-19 - strengthening a bearish theme and exposing key support at 109-08, Apr 24 low and a bear trigger.
- Cross asset update: Gold up 33.4 at 3323.42, stocks weaker with rise in bond yield (SPX emini -95.0 to 5864.75), Crude retreating (WTI -0.62 at 61.41).
- Look ahead to Thursday's data: Weekly Claims at 0830ET, Flash PMIs at 0945ET, Exist Home Sales at 1000ET and KC Fed Mfg Activity at 1100ET.
LOOK AHEAD: Thursday Data Calendar: Weekly Claims, Flash PMIs, Exist Home Sales
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- 22-May 0800 Richmond Fed Barkin fireside chat (no text, Q&A)
- 22-May 0830 Initial Jobless Claims (229k, 230k)
- 22-May 0830 Continuing Claims (1.881M, 1.883M)
- 22-May 0830 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index (-.03, -0.25)
- 22-May 0945 S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI (50.2, 49.9)
- 22-May 0945 S&P Global US Services PMI (50.8, 51.0)
- 22-May 0945 S&P Global US Composite PMI (50.6, 50.3)
- 22-May 1000 Existing Home Sales (4.02M, 4.10M), MoM (-5.9%, 2.0%)
- 22-May 1100 Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity (-4, -5)
- 22-May 1130 US Tsy $85B 4W & $75B 8W bill auctions
- 22-May 1300 US Tsy $18B 10Y TIPS auction
- 22-May 1400 NY Fed Williams keynote remarks NY Fed event (text, Q&A)
AUDUSD TECHS: Trend Signals Point North
- RES 4: 0.5682 High Nov 12 ‘24
- RES 3: 0.6550 61.8% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Apr 9 bear leg
- RES 2: 0.6528 High Nov 29 ‘24
- RES 1: 0.6515 High May 7
- PRICE: 0.6465 @ 16:18 BST May 21
- SUP 1: 0.6362 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 0.6275 Low Apr 14
- SUP 3: 0.6181 Low Apr 11
- SUP 4: 0.6116 Low Apr 10
AUDUSD traded higher into the close, and has largely reversed the RBA-tripped weakness seen into the Tuesday close. This keeps the trend condition bullish and the May 13 rally signals the end of the recent corrective pullback. Attention is on key resistance at 0.6515, the May 7 high. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting an uptrend. A resumption of the trend would open 0.6550, a Fibonacci retracement. Key support lies at 0.6362, the 50-day EMA.
