US TSYS: Late Buying on Late SF Fed Daly Recalibration Comment

• RES 4: 151.21 High Mar 28
• RES 3: 150.49 High Apr 2 
• RES 2: 149.38 50.0% retracement of the Jan 10 - Apr 22 bear leg
• RES 1: 149.31 High Jul 30
• PRICE: 149.25 @ 19:55 BST Jul 30
• SUP 1: 147.07 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 146.20/145.86 50-day EMA / Low Jul 24
• SUP 3: 145.16 61.8% retracement of the Jul 1 - 16 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 144.21 76.4% retracement of the Jul 1 - 16 bull cycle  

A bull cycle in USDJPY remains in place, strengthened by the break of the bull trigger Wednesday. The level, at 149.18, the Jul 16 high, confirms a resumption of the uptrend. Pivot support to monitor is 146.20, the 50-day EMA. A clear breach of it would instead signal scope for stronger reversal. First support is at 147.07, the 20-day EMA.    

Moderate two-way SOFR & Treasury option volumes Wednesday, some put unwinds/profit taking as underlying futures extend lows post-FOMC. Projected rate cut pricing retreated vs. this morning/pre-data (*) levels: Sep'25 at -11.8bp (-16.9bp), Oct'25 at -21.4bp (-29.1bp), Dec'25 at -37.1bp (-46.6bp), Jan'26 at -45.6bp (--55.6bp). Year end projection well off early July level of appr -65.0bp.

• SOFR Options:
• -8,000 0QQ5 96.62 puts, 5.5-6.0 ref 96.675
• -6,000 0QU5 96.37 puts, 2.5 vs. 96.685/0.12%
• -3,000 SFRH6 96.25 straddles, 44.75
• +5,000 SFRZ5 96.62/97.75 call spds 2.75
• +2,500 SFRU5 95.87 straddles 13.5 over 96.12 calls
• +10,000 SFRH6 95.68 puts, 2.5 vs. 96.275/0.10%
• -3,000 SFRZ5 96.00/96.37/96.75 call flys, 8.75
• -4,000 0QV5 97.00/97.50/98.00 call flys, 5.25
• 4,000 SFRU5 95.75/95.81/95.93/96.00 call condors, 2.75
• 4,300 SFRZ5 96.12 straddles ref 96.105
• 2,000 SFRU5 95.75/95.68 put spds ref 95.845
• Block/screen, 5,500 SFRV5 95.81/SFRZ5 95.62 put spds, 1.0 +Oct
• Block, +8,000 SFRV5 95.68/95.81 2x1 put spds, 1.0
• over 5,000 SFRZ5 95.62/96.87 strangles ref 96.105
• 4,000 SFRZ5 95.50/95.62/95.75 put flys, 1.5 ref 96.105 to -.11
• 2,000 0QQ5 96.93/97.06 call spds
• +1,000 SFRU5 96.12/96.25 call spds, 0.75 vs. 95.90/0.04%
• Block/screen, +12,000 SFRV5 96.12/96.25 call spds 1.0 over 95.81/95.93 put spds ref 96.105
• Treasury Options:
• +25,000 Wednesday wkly US 107 puts, 1 (exp 8/6)
• +10,000 TYU5 109.5 puts, 8
• +6,500 TYV5 111 straddles, 160
• over +53,000 wk5 Wednesday FV 108 puts, 1, OI 1,545, expire today
• +7,500 TYU5 114 calls, 5 ref 111-10
• +1,500 TYU5 111 straddles, 118 vs. 111-14.5/0.16%
• 5,450 USU5 116 calls, 49 last
• 2,500 USU5 117 calls
• 2,000 Wednesday wkly TY 110.75 puts, 1 ref 111-14, expire today, OI 12,561
• 1,200 FVU5 110.25 calls ref 108-14
• +3,000 TYX5 112/116 1x2 call spds vs. 110 puts, 5-6/call spd ovr
• over 4,200 TYU5 110.5 puts, 19 ref 111-11 to -10
• 2,000 wk1 TY 110.25/110.5 put spds, 2 ref 111-11.5 (exp 8/1)
• appr +3,000 TYU5 111.5/112.5 1x2 call spds

• RES 4: 1.3789 High Jul 01 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 1.3681 High Jul 4 
• RES 2: 1.3620 High Jul 10
• RES 1: 1.3467/1.3589 50-day EMA / High Jul 24 and key resistance
• PRICE: 1.3261 @ 19:49 BST Jul 30
• SUP 1: 1.3245 Low May 19
• SUP 2: 1.3242 Low Jul 30
• SUP 3: 1.3144 38.2% retracement of the Jan 13 - Jul 1 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 1.3041 Low Apr 14   

A bearish theme in GBPUSD remains intact and the pair is trading closer to its latest lows. The bear trigger at 1.3365, the Jul 16 low, has been cleared. This confirms a resumption of the downleg that started Jul 1 and highlights a clear break of the trendline drawn from the Jan 13 low. The breach opens 1.3245, the May 19 low. Initial resistance is seen at 1.3467, the 50-day EMA. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 1.3589, the Jul 24 high.