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Global indictors have been mixed suggesting that we could see inflation rates remain fairly steady. Some commodity prices were higher in August, such as food, while others were lower, like oil. In September so far metals are higher while oil prices and container rates continue to trend lower.
Global inflation vs supply chain pressures
Global inflation vs food & oil prices
Source: MNI - Market News/LSEG
G20 inflation has been trending gradually lower over 2025 with it reaching 3.8% y/y in July, the lowest in over four years. However, both headline and underlying OECD inflation have been fairly stable since March with disinflation progress stalling. Non-Japan Asia ex China core has also been steady around 1.8-2% since the start of 2024. The impact of tariffs on inflation especially in the US remains highly uncertain but lower global demand could put downward pressure on prices.
Global headline CPI y/y%
Source: MNI - Market News/LSEG
Asia vs OECD core CPI y/y%
Source: MNI - Market News/LSEG