OIL: Kyrgyzstan imposes temporary ban on export of petroleum products, oil

• Crude oil prices have gained ground on Tuesday, with geopolitical tensions rising after an Israeli strike on Hamas officials in Qatar, the first Israeli strike on a GCC member.
• Meanwhile, potential for new sanctions on Russia is set against demand uncertainty after Saudi Arabia cut most OSPs for October.
• WTI Oct 25 is up by 0.6% at $62.6/bbl.
• The EIA has raised its forecast for global oil demand in 2025 by 0.1m b/d to 103.8m b/d, according to its September Short-Term Energy Outlook. Demand for 2026 is up 0.2m b/d at 105.1m b/d.
• From a technical perspective, a bear cycle in WTI futures remains intact. The pullback from last Tuesday’s high highlights a possible reversal and the end of the corrective phase.
• Initial resistance to watch is $66.03, the Sep 2 high. A stronger resumption of weakness would pave the way for a move towards $57.71, the May 30 low.
• Meanwhile, spot gold is currently up by 0.2% at $3,642/oz, having hit a fresh record high at $3,674 earlier in the session.
• Goldman Sachs has said that the yellow metal could rally to nearly $5,000/oz if investors shift a small portion of their holdings from Treasuries into gold on signs of more political interference in the Fed.
• Gold remains in a clear bull cycle, with sights on $3,674.8 next, a Fibonacci projection, which was tested today. This is followed by $3,700 round number resistance.

• US rates sold off on net following the BLS preliminary estimate of the payrolls benchmark revision coming in more negative than the midpoint of some very wide ranges but at least tracking within those broad ranges.
• Ahead of Wednesday’s PPI and Thursday’s PPI release, it’s helped see implied rates lift a little off lows seen since Friday’s soft payrolls report but there is nevertheless a clearly dovish pricing backdrop.
• Fed Funds implied rates point to 27bp of cuts with next week’s FOMC decision (i.e. a little below 10% odds of a 50bp cut) although expectations of three consecutive rate cuts in what’s left of this year have been pared slightly with 68.5bp of cumulative cuts currently priced vs recent lows of 72.5bps.
• Further beyond, there are a cumulative 95bp of cuts to the March FOMC whilst SOFR futures point to in total ~145bp of cuts from current levels with a terminal yield at some of its lowest levels since Sep 2024, when it saw cycle lows. 

• RES 4: 151.62 61.8% retracement of the Jan 10 - Apr 22 bear leg
• RES 3: 150.92 High Aug 1 and a key resistance 
• RES 2: 149.81 76.4% retracement of the Aug 1 - 14 bear leg 
• RES 1: 147.63/149.14 20-day EMA / High Sep 3  
• PRICE: 147.25 @ 16:34 BST Sep 9
• SUP 1: 146.21 Low Aug 14  
• SUP 2: 145.86 Low Jul 24
• SUP 3: 145.47 Trendline drawn from the Apr 22 low
• SUP 4: 145.40 50% retracement of the Apr - Aug upleg

USDJPY is trading lower as the pair extends the reversal from last week’s 149.14 high on Sep 3. The move down refocuses attention on key short-term support at 146.21, the Aug 14 low and a bear trigger. A break of this level would highlight a stronger bearish threat and expose 145.40, a Fibonacci retracement. Clearance of the Sep 3 high is required to reinstate a bullish theme.