EU BASIC INDUSTRIES: K+S (SDFGR NR/BBB-/NR): 4Q24 Results
Mar-13 12:05
Neutral results. We remain cautious on this name; it appears tight for the risk.
- K+S reported revenue 5% ahead of consensus.
- EBITDA beat by 11% on firmer margins at 17.7%. FX tailwinds were a factor.
- FCF of €60mn was close to expectations. That was a decline from €310mn last year with a comparable drop in EBITDA due to falling margins YoY. Net leverage ticked up to 2.6x from 2.4x QoQ, 1.7x YoY. As well as the decline in EBITDA, debt increased YoY.
- FY25 EBITDA guidance has a wide range, with midpoint implying little YoY change at 3% above consensus. FCF is expected to break even at least, with capex still elevated at two developing mines. That aligns with expectations. It expects prices to recovery slightly this year with demand growing. No change in leverage expected.
- Webcast 12.00 https://kpluss.stream24.net/webcast/.
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GILT SYNDICATION: New 10-year: 4.50% Mar-35 gilt: Priced
Feb-11 12:04
- Reoffer: 99.706 to yield 4.5363%
- Size: GBP13bln (higher than the GBP8.5-10.0bln we expected)
- Orderbooks in excess of GBP140bln (inc JLM interest of GBP12bln)
- Spread set at 4.25% Jul-34 gilt + 5.5bp (guidance was + 5.5/6.0bps)
- HR 106% vs 4.25% Jul-34 gilt. Spot ref 98.23
- Maturity: 7 March 2035
- ISIN: GB00BT7J0027
- Settlement: 12 February, 2025 (T+1)
- Bookrunners: Barclays, BNP Paribas, Citi (B&D/DM), Goldman Sachs International Bank, HSBC and NatWest.
- Timing: TOE: 11:56GMT. FTT immediately
From market source
US TSYS: Twist Steeper With Long End Lower In EGB Supply Spillover
Feb-11 12:01
- Treasuries sit twist steeper on the day. The front-end is little changed ahead of Powell’s Senate Banking Committee appearance at 1000ET today whilst the longer end has steadily sold off through London hours after a Japan holiday as it’s dragged lower by EGBs digesting heavy supply.
- Cash yields are 0.5-3.5bp higher on the day, with 10Y yields at 4.527% (+3.0bps) having now climbed almost 10bps since pre-NFP levels.
- 2s10s has lifted to 24.5bps (+2bp) but remains on the low side for the ytd range.
- TYH5 sits at 109-01+ (- 05+) off lows of 109-00+ on particularly light cumulative volumes of 225k.
- It takes a step closer to support at 108-20+ (Feb 4 low) whilst the short-term trend needle points north with resistance at 110-00 (Feb 7 high).
- Data: NFIB business barometer (1100ET – already released)
- Fedspeak: Hammack (0850ET), Powell (1000ET), Williams (1530ET), Bowman (1530ET)
- Coupon issuance: US Tsy $58B 3Y Note auction - 91282CMN8 (1300ET)
- Bill issuance: US Tsy $85B 42D CMB bill auction (1130ET)
CROSS ASSET: Another round of selling in Bond Futures
Feb-11 12:01
- Core Bonds are seeing another round of selling, Bund is now clearing the Post NFP low, not a tech level with better support seen at 132.72.
- As noted earlier for the US Tnotes, the 10yr Yield of 4.55% is at 108.26 Today, although most Investor will likely see better resistance at the 4.60% mark initially.
- USDJPY tests session high at 152.38.
