CZK: Koruna Ticks Higher, Wages Beat Forecasts

• The USD is moderating early Monday, prompting the ICE USD Index to head into NY hours holding the bulk of the Friday pullback - but stopping short of any further weakness. The reaction seen since Friday's poor payrolls print (as well as Trump's subsequent firing of the head of the BLS) has held - keeping markets well priced for a more activist Fed later in 2025.
• Greenback consolidation has aided a bounce for GBP, keeping GBP/USD either side of the 1.33 handle and within range of 1.3345, the 100-dma. Despite this, the bearish theme in GBPUSD remains intact for now. Last week’s sell-off resulted in a breach of the bear trigger at 1.3365, the Jul 16 low. These levels could be of greater consequence later this week on the BoE rate decision. The MPC are uniformly expected to cut rates by 25bps, however the vote split among the board will be carefully watched.  
• The short-term bullish corrective phase in USDCAD remains in play despite sharp weakness Friday. On the recent run higher, price traded through the 50-day EMA at 1.3739 and this has been followed by a break of resistance at 1.3798, the Jun 23 high. A bullish trend condition in EURJPY remains intact and for now the recent move down is considered corrective. Key support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA at 169.17. A clear break of the EMA is required to highlight a stronger short-term bearish threat.
• Factory orders and durable goods orders are the scheduled highlights Monday. There are no scheduled Fed appearances today, however any comments or speculation will come under close scrutiny given Kugler's resignation over the weekend. 

German and UK yields generally tick higher vs. Friday’s close, taking cues from the U.S., before weakness in crude oil provides some counter.

• Weakness in Treasuries was perhaps linked to suggestions that U.S. President Trump can ultimately have little influence on the BLS data, despite the recent & incoming personnel changes (see our exclusive: Ex-Chief Says BLS Can Withstand Trump Pressure).
• An uptick in equity futures also weighs on bonds, with the above and Trump’s suggestions that he will likely leave Fed Chair Powell in post helping soothe risk appetite after Friday’s sell off.
• Bund futures as low as 129.50 before a recovery to 129.80, Initial support at the July 25 low and bear trigger (128.84) remains untouched,
• German yields flat to 2bp higher, curve steeper. 5s30s back towards 95 vs. closing cycle highs of 98.7bp.
• EGB spreads to Bunds little changed to ~2bp tighter, with the bounce in equities helping promote compression for the periphery (BTPs outperform, after 2bp tighter on the day) after Friday’s risk-off session.
• Gilt yields see a more parallel 1-2bp shift higher. Futures base around 91.25 before a recovery to 92.40. Initial support at the 20-day EMA (91.86).
• Modest hawkish adjustments in EUR & GBP STIRs, but both show a broadly unchanged picture, leaning towards 1 further ECB cut this cycle and 50bp or so of BoE easing through year-end (a BoE cut on Thursday remains over 90% discounted).
• U.S. durable goods (final) and factory orders highlights the macro calendar today.