AUDUSD TECHS: Key Short-Term Support Intact - For Now
- RES 4: 0.6976 2.00 proj of the Oct 13 - 27 - Nov 3 price swing
- RES 3: 0.6956 High Aug 30
- RES 2: 0.6909 76.4% retracement of the Aug 11 - Oct 13 downleg
- RES 1: 0.6851 High Dec 5 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 0.6764 @ 15:59 GMT Dec 8
- SUP 1: 0.6641 Low Nov 29
- SUP 2: 0.6623/6585 50-day EMA / Low Nov 21
- SUP 3: 0.6387 Low Nov 10
- SUP 4: 0.6272 Low Nov 3 and a key support
The AUDUSD trend condition is bullish and this week’s move lower appears to be a correction. Price remains above the 50-day EMA at 0.6623 - a key support. A clear break of this average would be seen as a bearish development and signal scope for a deeper retracement. Recent gains resulted in a breach of 0.6797, Nov 15 high. This confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and has opened 0.6909, a Fibonacci retracement.
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AUDUSD TECHS: Key Resistance Exposed
- RES 4: 0.6682 Low Jul 14 and a recent breakout level
- RES 3: 0.6656 High Sep 23
- RES 2: 0.6600 Round number resistance
- RES 1: 0.6536/47 High Nov 8 / 4 and a key resistance zone
- PRICE: 0.6457 @ 15:51 GMT Nov 8
- SUP 1: 0.6272 Low Nov 3
- SUP 2: 0.6210/6170 Low Oct 21 / 13 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 0.6133 1.382 proj of the Apr 5 - May 12 - Jun 3 price swing
- SUP 4: 0.6099 76.4% retracement of the 2020 - 2021 bull cycle
AUDUSD traded higher into the Tuesday close and is holding on to its latest gains. This extends the strength seen since the Friday rally. The move higher suggests the recent pullback between Oct 27 - Nov 3 is over. Key short-term resistance is at 0.6522, the Oct 27 high and 0.6547, Oct 4 high. A breach of this resistance zone would strengthen the case for bulls. On the downside, a reversal lower and a break of Thursday’s 0.6272 low, would reinstate a bearish threat.
US STOCKS: Late Equity Roundup: Bounce off Late Reversal
Rocky second-half trade for stocks, reversing second half highs to mildly lower/new session lows before bouncing back to near middle of the range. Materials sector continued to outperform while Information Technology shares pared gains/made way for Real Estate shares.
- Timing of the reversal coincided with a sharp sell-off in Bitcoin (-15%) and worrisome headlines for Fedex: HAS CUT FLIGHTS, PARKED PLANES AS DEMAND DROPS, CFO SAYS, Bbg. SPX eminis currently trading +21 (0.55%) at 3836.5; DJIA +344.5 (1.05%) at 33175.32; Nasdaq +39.1 (0.4%) at 10604.25.
- SPX leading/lagging sectors: Materials (+1.97%) -- lead by metals and mining shares as metals continue to climb: Gold (+2.05%, +.3.96%/wk), Silver (+2.42%, +8.94%/wk) and Copper (+1.57%, +5.4%/wk): Newmont (NEM) +6.15%, Freeport McMoran (FCX) +3.00%. Real Estate (+0.93%) and Industrials (+0.86%) followed. Laggers: Consumer Discretionary (-0.37), Energy and Consumer Staples both +0.22%.
- Dow Industrials Leaders/Laggers: Amgen (AMGN) +13.74 at 290.76, United Health (UNH) +5.44 at 550.46, Boeing (BA) +4.04 at 168.95. Laggers: Disney (DIS) -0.98 at 99.45, Walgreens Boots (WBA) -0.55 at 38.04, Chevron (CVX) -0.22 at 185.39.
US: Late Corporate Credit Update
Investment-grade corporate credit risk bounced off second-half lows to new session highs late Tuesday, sparked by a sharp reversal/steep sell-off in crypto currencies (Bitcoin from +3% to -15%) with equities reversing gains before bouncing again late.
- Investment grade risk measured by Markit's CDXIG5 index is currently -0.082 at 88.429 vs. 86.729 low; CDXHY5 high yield index at 99.387 (-0.051).
- Outperforming credit sectors (tighter or least wide): subordinated Financials (-0.2), Energy and Consumer Staples both +0.5.
- Lagging sectors (wider or least narrow): Materials and Communications both 1.5, followed by Utilities and Health Care +1.1.
