EU CONSUMER CYCLICALS: Kering | Pinault II to step down?
Jun-12 11:26
(KERFP; NR/BBB+) * Reports : https://blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories/SXQPCJDWRGG0are he may ste...
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OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Bear Cycle In Gilts Still In Play
May-13 11:16
- In the FI space, for now, the latest move down in Bund futures is considered corrective. This correction remains intact and the contract has traded through support at the 50-day EMA, at 130.57. This signals scope for a deeper retracement and Monday’s extension strengthens the current bearish threat. Sights are on 129.28, 50.0% of the Mar 11 - Apr 7 rally. Initial resistance to watch is 130.85, the 20-day EMA.
- The latest pullback in Gilt futures appears corrective. However, the contract has traded through support at the 50-day EMA, at 92.49. The breach signals scope for a deeper retracement and yesterday’s move down resulted in a print below 91.73, the Apr 17 low. An extension of the bear leg would expose 91.43, the Apr 15 low. Initial firm resistance is seen at 92.67, the 20-day EMA. A break of this hurdle would ease bearish pressure.
EU-BOND SYNDICATION: New 20-year Oct-45 EU-bond: Allocations out
May-13 11:13
- Size: E7bln (upsized from E6bln guidance; MNI had expected E5-9bln)
- Final books in excess of E60bln (inc E4bln JLM interest)
- Spread set at MS+110bp (guidance was MS + 112bps area)
- HR 102% vs 2.50% Jul-44 Bund
- Size: E6bln (MNI expected E5-9bln)
- Coupon: Short first coupon
- Maturity: 12 October 2045
- Settlement: 20 May 2025 (T+5)
- ISIN: EU000A4EA8Y7
- JLMs: Barclays, Credit Agricole CIB (DM/B&D), LBBW, Morgan Stanley, Nordea
- Timing: Hedge deadline 12:35BST / 13:35CET. Pricing later today
From market source
US OUTLOOK/OPINION: Barclays Push Next Fed Cut To Dec On US-China Progress
May-13 11:10
- Barclays now expect the FOMC to cut just 25bp this year, in December, vs their prior call of two 25bp cuts this year in Jul and Sept.
- They see it followed by three 25bp cuts in 2026, for a terminal at a “slightly restrictive” 3.25-3.5%. That terminal is unchanged, with one 2025 cut deferred to 2026.
- “By our calculations, these reductions [in US trade-weighted tariffs on China] push the overall trade-weighted tariff rate to about 14%, or 17% when we exclude the temporary electronics exemption. This is substantially below the 25% (30% excluding electronics exemption) that we estimate has roughly been in place over the past month.”
- “We assume that the US will maintain the newly announced tariff rates on China throughout the medium term, after upcoming negotiations.”
- “We think these lower tariff rates on China will be considerably less disruptive for domestic activity, labor markets, and less inflationary, than prior rates.”
- Barclays now see real GDP growth of 0.5% GDP in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026 (% Q4/Q4 basis), avoiding a 2H25 recession they previously had in their forecast, and see core PCE inflation at 3.3% Q4/Q4 in 2025 vs 3.8% previously.
- This “strengthened growth trajectory” sees the unemployment rate “top out at 4.3% this year, in Q4. The pace of payroll employment gradually decelerates to 75k M/M, in line with our longstanding views about the effect of diminishing immigration on labor supply.”
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