BRAZIL: Jan Outstanding Loans, Services Volume
Mar-13 11:27
- The government has proposed changes to the 2025 budget, according to Estado, asking Congress to include an additional BRL 3bn to a gas voucher program, a further BRL 8bn in social security spending, and a BRL 7.7bn cut in the Bolsa Familia social welfare programme budget. Congress is due to vote on the 2025 budget next week. Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Rogerio Ceron said yesterday that the government will maintain its 0.25% of GDP primary surplus target for next year, when it sends its 2026 budget guidelines proposal to Congress.
- On the data front, outstanding loans figures for January are due at 1130GMT(0730ET), alongside the latest personal loan default rate. These numbers will be followed by services volumes data for January at 1200GMT(0800ET), where analysts expect volumes to be unchanged, after a 0.5% decline in December. In annual terms, services volume is seen rising by 1.5% y/y.
- Jan. Outstanding Loans MoM, prior 1.4%
- Jan. Personal Loan Default Rate, prior 5.3%
- IBGE Services Volume YoY NSA, est. 1.5%, prior 2.4%
- Meanwhile, Finance Minister Haddad has a meeting with Institutional Relations Minister Gleisi Hoffmann at 1400GMT(1000ET).
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EUR: Seeing wider demand in te past few minutes
Feb-11 11:20
- The EUR is seeing a wider bid here, at its best level for the day against the CHF, JPY, AUD, NOK, CAD, and the EUR is on the foot in early trade, with the CAD leading losses, down 0.31%.
- It is still worth noting that Yesterday's low at 1.47237 in EURCAD was the lowest level in nearly a Month, since 13th January, so today's gains is barely an unwound of Yesterday's range.
- The high in EURCAD is at 1.48155.
LOOK AHEAD: Tuesday Data Calendar: Fed Chairman Powell Senate Banking Testimony
Feb-11 11:19
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- 11-Feb 0600 NFIB Small Business Optimism reported 102.8 vs. 105.1 prior
- 11-Feb 0850 Cleveland Fed Hammack economic outlook (text, Q&A)
- 11-Feb 1000 Fed Chair Powell Senate Banking testimony (text, Q&A)
- 11-Feb 1130 US Tsy $85B 42D CMB bill auction
- 11-Feb 1300 US Tsy $58B 3Y Note auction (91282CMN8)
- 11-Feb 1530 NY Fed Williams keynote remarks/moderated Q&A
- 11-Feb 1530 Fed Gov Bowman on bank regulation (text, no Q&A)
NORWAY: Vacancy Rate Eases In Q4, Approaching 2010-19 Beveridge Curves
Feb-11 11:17
The Norwegian seasonally adjusted vacancy rate eased to 2.8% in Q4, down from 3.1% in Q3 for the lowest since March 2021. This is down from a post-covid high of 4.0%, with labour demand easing amid subdued mainland activity (most recently highlighted by this morning’s Q4 GDP report).
- Labour market rebalancing has been more pronounced in vacancy than unemployment statistics. While the NAV unemployment claims rate (which Norges Bank focuses on) has drifted away from 2022 lows, it remains below 2010-2019 levels.
- Norway now appears to be approaching points on 2010-2019 Beveridge curves, but this does immediately signal scope for more pronounced increases in unemployment rates ahead (the charts below plot the unemployment claims rate as well as the LFS unemployment rate).
- This contrasts to the Eurozone, where unemployment rates remain at historically low levels despite easing vacancy rates.
