OIL: Iraqi PM Posts on Kurdish Export Deal
Sep-25 15:37
Iraq’s PM Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani has said in a post on X that would pave the way for an restart to pipeline crude oil exports from Iraq’s semi-autonomous Kurdistan region to Turkey’s Ceyhan port.
- “Today we reached a historic agreement under which the Federal Ministry of Oil will receive crude oil produced from the fields in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq and export it through the Iraq–Türkiye pipeline. This ensures fair distribution of wealth, diversification.
- of export outlets, and encouragement of investment. An achievement 18 years in the making.”
- Kurdish media previously reported that the KRG’s non-oil revenues had been transferred to Baghdad as part of efforts to stabilise financial relations. This is a sign of better cooperation between the parties, which would support a deal finally getting over the line.
- There is no confirmation yet from the IOCs in the region, nor from the Turkish side. A spokesperson for APIKUR, a body representing IOCs in Kurdistan, told MNI earlier in the week that the organisation would make a statement following those of the Baghdad and Kurdistan governments.
- There have been numerous over enthusiastic declarations of a restart in the past, and all parties are likely needed to get flows moving.
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US TSY FUTURES: Midday September'25-December'25 Roll Update: 70%-80% Complete
Aug-26 15:27
Latest Tsy quarterly futures roll volumes from September'25 to December'25 below. Percentage complete currently 70%-80% ahead "First Notice" date this Friday, August 29. Current roll details:
- TUU5/TUZ5 appr 1,266,500 from -9.12 to -8.75, -9.0 last; 80% complete
- FVU5/FVZ5 appr 1,528,800 from -5.5 to -5.0, -5.25 last; 70% complete
- TYU5/TYZ5 appr 926,800 from -1.25 to -0.5, -0.75 last; 71% complete
- UXYU5/UXYZ5 app 550,300 from -0.25 to +0.5, 0.00 last; 72% complete
- USU5/USZ5 appr 312,600 from 12.0 to 12.75, 12.25 last; 79% complete
- WNU5/WNZ5 appr 435,700 from 7.0 to 8.25, 7.75 last; 74% complete
- Reminder, Sep futures don't expire until next month: 10s, 30s and Ultras on September 22, 2s and 5s on September 30.
OPTIONS: Larger FX Option Pipeline
Aug-26 15:16
- EUR/USD: Aug29 $1.1600(E1.3bln), $1.1625(E4.0bln), $1.1700(E1.1bln), $1.1725(E1.1bln)
- USD/JPY: Aug29 Y146.50($1.1bln)
- EUR/GBP: Aug29 Gbp0.8563-80(E2.0bln)
US DATA: Philly Non-Mfg Firms See Faster Price Increases Despite Sensitivity
Aug-26 15:08
- The Philly Fed non-manufacturing survey special questions on inflation expectations show a somewhat similar split in the activity indexes touched upon earlier with their historically large discrepancy between strong firms’ own activity and weak regional activity in August.
- The median firm reported increasing its own prices by 2.5% over the past year, up from 2.0% in the May question and having essentially paused annual price increases through end 2024/early 2025. It’s the strongest actual increase since the May 2024 survey.
- Own price expectations also firmed from 2.0% to 2.5%, above a typical median of 2% in surveys over the past almost two years but not an unprecedented level.
- Firms’ expectations of consumer inflation meanwhile cooled from a particularly strong May release, with those for the next year reverting to 3.3% from 4.8%. Ten-year ahead expectations also cooled to 3.5% after 4.8%, still above the 3.1% in February prior to reciprocal tariff announcements but within ranges.
- Elsewhere, these non-manufacturing firms reported greater price sensitivity over the quarter (59% reported higher sensitivity vs 50% in May) and fewer expect cost changes over the near-term (57% vs 65%). Of those that do expect cost increases, a similar almost two thirds expect those to be higher, with price changes over a median 3 months vs 2.5 months in the May survey.
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