US INFLATION: Initial Look At Unrounded CPI Estimates Before Tuesday's Release
* Looking ahead to next week's CPI report for June, headline CPI is expected to fall on the month ...
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FED: US TSY 9Y-11M AUCTION: NON-COMP BIDS $85 MLN FROM $39.000 BLN TOTAL
- US TSY 9Y-11M AUCTION: NON-COMP BIDS $85 MLN FROM $39.000 BLN TOTAL
US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (U6) Bearish Trend Structure
- RES 4: 111-02+ High Apr 24
- RES 3: 110-28+ High May 7
- RES 2: 110-03 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 109-17/110-00+ 20-day EMA / High May 29
- PRICE: 109-06+ @ 17:31 BST Jun 10
- SUP 1: 108-25 Low Jun 08
- SUP 2: 108-08+ Low May 19 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 108-04 1.382 proj of Apr 17 - May 4 - 7 swing
- SUP 4: 107-29 1.618 proj of the Apr 17 - May 4 - 7 price swing
Treasuries remain above Monday’s low, however, a bear threat remains present. Recent weakness reinforces a M/T bearish theme and provides an early signal that the corrective cycle since May 19, is over. Resistance to watch is 110-03, the 50-day EMA. Clearance of the average would undermine the bear theme. The bear trigger lies at 108-08+, the May 19 low. A breach of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend.
US TSYS/SUPPLY: Preview 10Y Auction: Will it be 5 Tails in a Row?
Treasury futures are steady to narrowly mixed, near the middle of the session range (TYU6 109-07 +0, yld 4.5284%) ahead of the $39B 10Y Note auction re-open (91282CQQ7) at the top of the hour. WI is currently 4.530%, 6.2bp cheap to last month's (small) tail:
- May auction recap: Treasury futures held at/near lows (TYM6 -11.5 at 110-01.5) after the $42B 10Y note auction (91282CQQ7) tailed for the fourth time in a row: drawing 4.468% high yield vs. 4.464% WI; 2.40x bid-to-cover vs. 2.43x prior.
- Peripheral stats: indirect take-up at 63.95% vs. 65.3% prior; direct bidder take-up 24.07% from 23.9% prior; primary dealer take-up to 11.98% vs. 10.8% prior.
| High yield | When-issued yield | Trade through (tail) | High - Median Spread | Bid-to-cover | Primary Dealer Percent | Indirect Percent | Direct Percent | Offering Amount | |
| 5 auction avg | 4.2634% | 4.2592% | (2.1) | 5.58 | 2.44 | 10.94% | 67.58% | 21.47% | $40.2B |
| 12-May-26 | 4.468% | 4.464% | (0.4) | 5.5 | 2.40 | 11.98% | 63.95% | 24.07% | $42B |
| 8-Apr-26 | 4.282% | 4.280% | (0.2) | 5.2 | 2.43 | 10.80% | 65.32% | 23.88% | $39B |
| 11-Mar-26 | 4.217% | 4.211% | (0.6) | 5.7 | 2.45 | 12.72% | 74.45% | 12.83% | $39B |
| 11-Feb-26 | 4.177% | 4.162% | (1.5) | 6.7 | 2.39 | 13.38% | 64.54% | 22.08% | $42B |
| 12-Jan-26 | 4.173% | 4.179% | 0.6 | 4.8 | 2.55 | 5.85% | 69.65% | 24.51% | $39B |
