MNI EM Sovereign Weekly: Choppy Waters

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Pivot Points
• Credit Markets: The Strait is not open and the path for credit more turbulent
• Rates: Inflation concerns persist
• EMFX: Shrugging it off
• Commodities: No alarms and no surprises, oil in focus

Asia
• East Asia: Semiconductor momentum continues to strengthen Korea’s external, fiscal and funding profile
• Southeast Asia: Policy divergence beneath resilient market access

CEEMEA
• CEE: Region-wide tight spreads may turn into a risk factor if fundamentals fail to justify further compression
• Eurasia: Fundamentals, buffers and official support are carrying some sovereigns
• GCC & Middle East: Two credits proving resilient through different channels
• Frontier Africa: Ghanaian outperformance
• Services & Diversified Africa: Long-term plans offer little shelter from immediate financing pressures

LATAM
• Andean Region: The Double-Edged Sword of Leverage
• Central America/Caribbean: Trade Winds Blowing Favourably for Trinidad & Tobago
• Brazil: The Urge to Merge
• Mexico: New Issue Derailed due to Market Volatility

Primary Activity
• Solid rebound, led by CEEMEA and South Korean issuances