AUSTRALIA DATA: Inflation Gauge Signals Stabilisation At Start Of Q3

• RES 3: 133.15 - High Feb 24 ‘26
• RES 2: 131.06 - 61.8% retracement of the Feb - May Bear Leg
• RES 1: 129.01 - 50-dma (cont)
• PRICE: 127.10 @ 14:51 BST Jul 03
• SUP 1: 126.85 - Low Jul 02
• SUP 2: 126.19 - 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 125.70 - Low Feb 1999

Bearish pressure has eased, but the broader theme remains negative in JGB futures. Through the latest sell-off, the price printed through the lower 1.0% 10-dma envelope on the continuation contract, signalling the strength of downside pressure. This widens the gap with the 50-dma, a break above which is needed to highlight a stronger short-term reversal and signal scope for any recovery. The 50-dma is currently at 129.01. A strong bull rally would open 131.80, a Fibonacci retracement.  

• RES 4: 1.4328 1.764 proj of the Mar 9 - 31 - May 1 price swing
• RES 3: 1.4292 61.8% Retracement Feb’25 - Jan’26 downleg
• RES 2: 1.4264 1.618 proj of the Mar 9 - 31 - May 1 price swing   
• RES 1: 1.4248 High Jun 24 and 25 and Tuesday’s high
• PRICE: 1.4198 @ 16:08 BST Jul 3
• SUP 1: 1.4150 Low Jul 2
• SUP 2: 1.4100 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.3956 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 1.3837 Low Jun 3 

USDCAD remains bullish and short-term weakness is considered corrective - for now. A recent fresh cycle high reinforced the bull theme and the move higher has paved the way for a climb towards 1.4292, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the Feb ’25 - Jan ’26 downleg. Note that the trend remains in overbought territory. A stronger corrective pullback would allow this condition to unwind. On the downside, the first important support lies at 1.4100, the 20-day EMA. 

• RES 4: 0.7223 High May 15
• RES 3: 0.7149/7201 High Jun 4 / High May 29
• RES 2: 0.7088 High Jun 15 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 0.6979/0.7041 20- and 50-day EMA values
• PRICE: 0.6937 @ 15:10 BST Jul 3
• SUP 1: 0.6865 Low Jun 30
• SUP 2: 0.6860 Low Apr 2 
• SUP 3: 0.6833 Low Mar 30 and a key support
• SUP 4: 0.6757 38.2% retracement of the Apr 9 ‘25 - May 6 bull cyle

A bear cycle in AUDUSD remains intact and short-term gains are considered corrective. Price has pierced a key support marked by the base of a bull channel drawn from the Apr ‘25 low - currently at 0.6921. A clear channel breakout would strengthen the bear theme and highlight a stronger reversal. This would open 0.6833, the Mar 30 low and a key support. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 0.7088, the Jun 15 high.