ASIA: Indonesia & Philippines Bright Spots For ASEAN Manufacturing
The S&P Global ASEAN manufacturing PMI fell to 50.4 in January from 50.7 remaining just in growth territory but slowest in almost a year. Indonesia was the only country to post a material increase in the PMI and Indonesia and the Philippines were the only ones to report growth in industrial activity. Output and orders increases slowed but so did price/cost pressures, while the labour market “stabilised”. Despite this capacity pressures are showing with backlogs up for the eleventh straight month. With the US imposing tariffs, the outlook for the region remains highly uncertain, although January business confidence was unchanged.
- Indonesia’s manufacturing PMI rose to 51.9, highest since May, from 51.2 to be 3 points above the August low, driven by an increase in output, orders and employment growth, which boosted stockbuilding. There was a second straight rise in “new export business”.
- Despite a pickup in costs driven by raw materials, selling price inflation rose by less as firms narrowed margins in order to increase sales.
- In contrast Thailand’s manufacturing sector contracted slightly in January with the PMI falling to 49.6 from 51.4, the lowest since April 2024. Output and orders were down on the month and thus inventories too, while staffing was stable but confidence re the outlook improved and is above average. There were capacity pressures though with backlogs rising.
- Cost inflation rose for the third consecutive month to be its highest in almost a year but selling prices remained subdued.
- The Philippines was the other country to post a PMI above 50 and remains the strongest in ASEAN but it fell 2 points in January to 52.3 as output and orders growth slowed and employment was steady. Confidence remained positive but below average.
ASEAN S&P Global manufacturing PMIs seasonally adjusted
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JGB TECHS: (H5) Returns Lower
- RES 3: 149.55 - High Mar 22 (cont)
- RES 2: 147.74 - High Jan 15 and bull trigger (cont)
- RES 1: 144.48/146.53 - High Nov 11 / High Aug 6
- PRICE: 142.12 @ 15:01 GMT Jan 03
- SUP 1: 141.65 - Low Dec 30
- SUP 2: 141.56 - 1.764 proj of the Aug 6 - Sep 3 - 9 price swing
- SUP 3: 141.05 - 2.000 proj of the Aug 6 - Sep 3 - 9 price swing
Markets slipped on the hawkish Fed and are yet to fully recover, touching 141.65 on the way lower. Medium-term trend signals on the continuation chart continue to point south. A resumption of the trend would pave the way for a move towards 141.56, a Fibonacci projection point on the continuation chart. A stronger recovery would open 144.48, the Nov 11 high. Further out, key resistance is at 146.53, the Aug 6 high (cont).
USDCAD TECHS: Bull Flag Highlights A Clear Uptrend
- RES 4: 1.4669 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 1.4539 3.382 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 2: 1.4508 3.236 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 1: 1.4467 High Dec 19
- PRICE: 1.4392 @ 15:50 GMT Jan 3
- SUP 1: 1.4336 Low Dec 20
- SUP 2: 1.4307/4232 20-day EMA / Low Dec 17
- SUP 3: 1.4136 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 1.4011 Low Dec 5
USDCAD is unchanged and bulls remain in the driver’s seat. The latest pause appears to be a flag formation - a bullish continuation signal. Note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 1.4508 next, a Fibonacci projection level. Initial firm support to watch lies at 1.4307, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective.
AUDUSD TECHS: Southbound
- RES 4: 0.6471 High Dec 9
- RES 3: 0.6408 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 0.6341 High Dec 18
- RES 1: 0.6247/6282 High Dec 30 / 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 0.6204 @ 15:21 GMT Jan 3
- SUP 1: 0.6179 Low Dec 31
- SUP 3: 0.6158 1.236 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
- SUP 3: 0.6100 Round number support
- SUP 4: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
A bearish trend condition in AUDUSD remains intact and the pair continues to trade closer to latest lows. Recent weakness maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position too, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Scope is seen for an extension towards 0.6158 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance to monitor is 0.6282, the 20-day EMA.
