LNG: Indian LNG Importers Seek Discounted Spot Deals: Platts

• 4,000 SOFR White packs (SFRU5-SFRM6) +0.000 at 1037:12ET - likely swap-tied sale with spds running wider in the short end

Elsewhere, multiple analysts now see a cut in September whereas previously they'd seen one later in 2025.

• Deutsche pulled forward their next-cut call from December to September (but still see a December cut).
• Barclays also pulled forward their view for the next cut to September.
• Natixis appears to have shifted its view for the next cut in October to be pulled to September "from this early juncture we think a September hawkish ease is more likely than not (assuming a 25bp cut), but there is still a great deal of time, and data, between now and the September FOMC meeting".
• SocGen likewise ("Previously, our base case was just one 25bp cut, and late this year (October or December). However, a rate cut at the next FOMC in September now looks an above 50% probability.")
• RBC isn't yet convinced of a cut before December: "While the odds of a rate cut next month are high, we aren’t yet convinced it is a slam dunk."

In the wake of Chair Powell's Jackson Hole Speech, multiple analysts abandoned their calls for the Fed to stay on hold through the rest of the year. The ranks of those who still see no cuts this year is now very small, with just 2 that we are aware of - see below.

• Morgan Stanley had previously seen rates steady through March 2026 - but now sees 25bp cuts quarterly starting in September through end-2026 (150bp total) to 2.75-3.00%). "We make the change on account of the shift in tone at Jackson Hole, where Powell revealed more concern about downside risk to labor markets. A September cut is not a certainty. Payrolls of 225k in August and another clear acceleration in tariff-related inflation could keep them on hold."
• BNP Paribas analysts abandoned their "on-hold" call for the Fed, and now pencil in 25bp cuts in September and December. Noting that "labor market data over the next few months will take on significantly more weight than the inflation figures," BNP writes that "Chair Powell’s speech... made clear that the Fed intends to deliver a "fine-tuning" rate cut at the September FOMC meeting unless the data dictates otherwise. Although we think that a September cut is not quite a done deal, the bar now seems sufficiently high for the data to surprise positively that we shift our longstanding on-hold call for the Fed to a base case for 25bp rate cuts at both the September and December meetings...September may end up being the only rate cut for the year. But we will need to wait for the data to tell us that."
• Scotiabank now sees cuts in 2025, vs their previous view that easing would start only in 2026: "[Powell's] sudden turn left a strong sense of capitulation oriented toward shifting the stance to avert the nasty optics of an all-out rebellion on a soon-to-be stacked Board. We’re now in totally uncharted territory on the Fed in my view... fifty points of easing by year-end is a minimum expectation and I’d lean toward expecting 75bps of cuts in a trio of back-to-back moves into year-end and another cut in early 2026 after which we’ll see as data and developments are digested along the way."
• Berenberg was also in the 2025 "on hold" camp since the start of the year, but now expects 25bp cuts in September and October. "That said, a September rate cut is still not a done deal. A lot depends on the August inflation and employment reports...If the Fed does lower interest rates as we now predict, strengthening inflationary pressure while the labour market remains roughly in balance should still ensure that it will keep interest rates on hold from its December meeting onwards."
• NatWest now sees 25bp cuts in September and December (previously saw no cuts in 2025), as we covered in a previous note.
• As for the holdouts: BofA still sees no cuts through year-end, but said post-Jackson Hole that "the risks have obviously shifted meaningfully toward a cut" in September..."The onus is firmly on the data to prevent a cut." ABNAmro likewise maintained its call for no cuts "We will update our Fed view when all relevant data is available."