EM ASIA CREDIT: Hyundai Motor: Q3 results released

• RES 4: 129.50 High Aug 5  
• RES 3: 129.44 High Sep 10 and key short-term resistance     
• RES 2: 129.13 High Sep 17 
• RES 1: 128.84 61.8% retracement of the Sep 10 - 25 bear leg    
• PRICE: 128.64 @ 05:54 BST Sep 30
• SUP 1: 128.29/127.88 Low Sep 29 / 25       
• SUP 2: 127.61 Low Sep 3 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 127.46 1.00 proj of the Aug 14 - 15 - 28 price swing  
• SUP 4: 127.13 1.236 proj of the Aug 14 - 15 - 28 price swing  

Bund futures have recovered from their recent lows - this appears to be a correction for now. Key support and the bear trigger remains exposed, it lies at 127.61, the Sep 3 low. Clearance of this level would cancel a recent bullish theme and confirm a continuation of the medium-term bear cycle. For bulls, a reversal higher would refocus attention on key resistance at 129.44, the Sep 10 high. First resistance is at 128.61, the 50-day EMA.

Better than expected China PMI data gave the onshore bourses a boost today, whilst the Hang Seng declined modestly on what was seemingly profit taking.  

• The Hang Seng is down -0.10% whilst the CSI 300 rose +0.22%, the Shanghai Comp +0.40% and Shenzhen up +0.47%.  
• The NIKKEI returned to a modest rally of +0.16% having fallen two successive days after reaching new all time highs last week.  
• The KOSPI is down modestly by -0.06% after yesterday's very strong gains of +1.3%.  
• The TAIEX was closed yesterday and responded today with gains of +1.37%.
• The FTSE Malay KLCI is up +0.45% and on track for three days of gains.  
• The Jakarta Composite is down -0.33% giving back yesterday's gains.  
• The NIFTY 50 finished yesterday marginally down for a seventh day of losses.  It is doing very little in Tuesday morning trade, up just +0.06%.  

NZGBs closed 2bps cheaper across benchmarks. It is noteworthy that the local market was closed at the time of the RBA decision, so any negative spillover will be reflected in early trade tomorrow.

• ANZ business confidence for September was little changed at 49.6, while the activity outlook rose to 43.4 from 38.7. Past own activity rose 4 points to +5, signalling that growth is improving from Q2’s sharp contraction but remains lacklustre.
• Inflation expectations rose 0.1pp to 2.7% with a net 46% expecting to increase prices over the coming 3 months (+3pp) and an increase in costs. Employment compared to a year ago improved marginally but remained negative at -10.9, in line with other data signalling that the labour market is weak.
• The RBNZ is expected to ease at both its October and November meetings, and the monthly data pointing to continued soft growth are in line with this.
• RBNZ dated OIS pricing closed showing 33bps of easing for October, with a cumulative 62bps by November 2025.
• Tomorrow, the local calendar will see Building Permits data.
• On Thursday, the NZ Treasury plans to sell NZ$250mn of the 4.50% May-30 bond and NZ$200mn of the 4.50% May-35 bond.