ISRAEL: "Holes Need To Be Filled" In Gaza Peace Plan - Egypt FM
Reuters reporting comments from Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty on US President Donald Trump's 20-point peace plan for Gaza, amid reports that Hamas is unlikely to agree to the ceasefire terms. Abdelatty says he is “supportive of Trump's plan and vision to end the war in Gaza,” but there are “a lot of holes that need to be filled.”
- Abdelatty notes, “if there is a political will, I believe that this plan for Gaza can be implemented on the ground, but it takes two to tango,” says “we are very cautious and we are talking with Hamas now to see what their reaction is to this plan for Gaza.”
- Abdelatty says Trump's Gaza plan “needs more discussions on how to implement it, especially issues of governance and security arrangements.”
- The BBC reported today, “Mediators have made contact with the head of Hamas's military wing in Gaza, who has indicated he does not agree to new US ceasefire plan...”
- White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt told Fox earlier that the White House will draw a ‘red line’ for Hamas to respond to Trump’s peace plan. "It's a red line that the president of the United States is going to have to draw, and I'm confident that he will."
- On Tuesday, Trump indicated to reporters that Hamas had “three or four days” to respond positively to the proposal. If Hamas refused to accept the terms, he would let Israel “do what you would have to do.”
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US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z5) Pullback Appears Corrective
- RES 4: 113-06 2.236 proj of the Jul 15 - 22 - 28 price swing
- RES 3: 113-00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 112-28+ 2.000 proj of the Jul 15 - 22 - 28 price swing
- RES 1: 112-20+ High Aug 28 / 29
- PRICE: 112-05 @ 16:50 BST Sep 2
- SUP 1: 111-31 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 111-18+ 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 111-13+ Low Aug 18 and a key support
- SUP 4: 110-25 Low Aug 1
The trend outlook in Treasury futures is bullish and the latest pullback appears corrective. Last week’s gains delivered a print above 112-15+, the Aug 5 high and a bull trigger. A breach of this hurdle confirms a resumption of the bull cycle and paves the way for a climb towards the 113-00 handle. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, reinforcing a bull theme. First support to watch is 111-31, the 20-day EMA.
US TSYS: Midday SOFR/Treasury Option Roundup
SOFR & Treasury options saw mixed flow upon the return from the extended holiday weekend, notable put selling in SOFR options as underlying futures traded weaker in the first half. Treasury futures pared losses slightly after ISM Mfg data. Projected rate cuts cool slightly vs. late Friday (*) levels: Sep'25 at -22.1bp (-22bp), Oct'25 at -35.4bp (-35.6bp), Dec'25 at -54.8bp (-56bp), Jan'26 at -65.9bp (-68.6bp).
- SOFR Options:
- -7,500 SFRV5 95.81/96.00/96.18 put flys, 5.0 ref 96.21
- -3,000 SFRH6 96.12/96.00 put spds, 3.0
- +10,000 SFRZ5 96.18/96.43 1x2 call spds 1.75 ref 96.215
- 15,000 SFRU5 95.93/96.06 call spds ref 95.9025
- -10,000 SFRX5 96.06 put vs. 96.25/96.43 call spds, 0.0 net ref
- 3,800 SFRV5 96.25/96.37/96.50 call flys ref 96.215
- 2,100 SFRX5 95.93/96.06/96.18 put flys
- 5,500 SFRU5 95.81 puts ref 95.9025
- 2,000 0QV5 96.50 puts ref 96.98
- 2,00 0QH6 96.62/96.75/96.75 put trees ref 97.01
- Treasury Options:
- 3,000 FVX5 108.25/108.5/108.75/109 put condors ref 109-08.75
- 10,000 TYV5 108/109 put spds
- 3,200 USX5 106/111 put spds ref 113-21
- 2,500 TYV5 110.25/110.5/111.25 broken put flys ref 112-08.5
- -8,000 TYV5 112 straddles, 118-117
- 5,000 FVV5 109 puts ref 109-08
- 5,000 TYV5 113 calls ref 112-12
- 4,450 TUV5 103.87 puts, 3 ref 104-08
ECB: Muller Sticks To Patient Stance, Doesn’t See Material ECB Forecast Revision
- Speaking to Bloomberg Adria, ECB’s Muller said “It’s reasonable right now to take the time and monitor the economic data as it comes in the following months and take any different decisions if necessary,”
- As was the case ahead of the July ECB decision, he again sees a hold in September as one that “makes sense”.
- These remarks aren't a surprise from Muller, being very similar to Jul 25 remarks: "It is appropriate to leave interest rates unchanged for the time being when shaping monetary policy and to assess whether and when interest rates need to be adjusted again based on data in the coming months and quarters"
- More interestingly he said new ECB forecasts next week won’t change significantly from the previous batch in June.
- “In light of all of this turmoil that we have seen in the recent past, starting with the trade policy in the US, also the impact of war in Ukraine that we have now for a number of years, the economy has held up quite well in Europe,” Muller said. Looking at recent data, “we could still assume that we are more or less on the path that was already there during the last round of projections for the ECB.”
