US NATGAS: Henry Hub Extends Recovery from May 19 Low
May-21 11:56
Henry Hub is extending the recovery seen yesterday after reaching a low of $3.098/mmbtu on May 19 amid a mixed weather forecast, strong production and stable LNG exports.
- Lower 48 natural gas demand is down 1.837 bcf/d on the day to 67.07 bcf/d but remains above the seasonal five-year average of around 62.6 bcf/d, BNEF shows.
- The average US Lower 48 temperature forecast still shows a gradual rise back above normal by the end of the month. The latest NOAA 6-14 forecast shows intensified above normal temperatures in the Pacific and Mountain regions but colder in South Central, Midwest and East later in the period. The GFS 6z 15day has fallen over 7 TDDs nationally.
- Total feedgas flows to US LNG export terminals down 110 mmcf/d today to 14.76 bcf/d, Bloomberg shows. Plaquemines flows have edged down to the lowest since May 8 at 2.13 bcf/d while Cameron LNG feedgas is still curtailed around 1.33bcf/d.
- US domestic natural gas production remains strong this week and estimated at 106.90 bcf/d yesterday compared to the high of the month of 107.1 bcf/d on May 17, according to BNEF.
- Export flows to Mexico dip 150mmcf/d lower on the day but remain high at 8.10 bcf/d today and compared to the 30 day average of 7.45 bcf/d, BNEF shows.
- Nymex Henry Hub daily aggregate traded futures volume was up to 707k on May 20.
- US Natgas JUN 25 up 1.8% at 3.49$/mmbtu
- US Natgas JUL 25 up 1.3% at 3.82$/mmbtu
- US Natgas MAY 26 up 1.6% at 3.93$/mmbtu
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US TSY OPTIONS: Early Treasury Option Roundup
Apr-21 11:56
Mixed Treasury option flow gradually picking up ahead the NY open, light overnight trade with Europe closed for Easter Monday. Underlying futures extending lows, curves twisting steeper with short end resisting sell-off, 2s10s +9.053 at 61.299. Despite this morning's sell-off, projected rate hike pricing gain slightly vs. Thursday levels (*) as follows: May'25 at -3.4bp (-2.7bp), Jun'25 at -19.0bp (-17.6bp), Jul'25 at -40.1bp (-38.6bp), Sep'25 -59.9bp (-57.4bp).
- Treasury Options:
- 4,000 TYK5 109.5/111 put spds vs. 111/111.5 call spds ref 110-30
- 2,000 TYK5 110.75/111.5 strangles 30 ref 110-29.5
- 1,500 FVM5 108.5/109 call spds, 14.5 ref 108-16.5
- over 7,400 TYM5 114 calls, 14 last
- over 6,000 TYK5 110.75 puts 18 last
- over 9,900 TYK5 110 puts, partly tied to 109/110 2x1 put spds
- 2,500 wk2 TY 112 calls ref 111-06
US TSY FUTURES: Extending Lows
Apr-21 11:11
- Futures extending lows again, sellers meet limited buy interest, low overall volumes volumes at Jun'25 10Y trades down to 110-30 (-7.5), total volume just over 151k. 10Y yield climbs to 4.3676% (+.0427).
- Initial Technical support below at 110-15/109-08 (Low Apr 15 / 11 and the bear trigger); Continued weakness would refocus attention on 109-08, the Apr 11 low. A break of this level would resume the downtrend.
LOOK AHEAD: Monday Data Calendar: Chicago Fed Goolsbee, Leading Index, Tsy Bills
Apr-21 11:05
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- 21-Apr 0830 Chicago Fed Goolsbee interview on CNBC
- 21-Apr 1000 Leading Index (-0.3%, -0.5%)
- 21-Apr 1130 US Tsy $76B 13W, $68B 26W bill auctions
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