AMERICAS OIL: Hedge Funds Boost Net Bullish Natural Gas Bets to 7-Week High

• Stocks remain mixed late Wednesday, off initial lows following the FOMC announcement to leave rates steady. The Dow remains higher after trading weaker since Monday - sentiment cautiously buoyed ahead US/China trade talks expected in Geneva over the weekend.
• Currently, the DJIA trades up 133.14 points (0.33%) at 40973.79, S&P E-Minis down 10.25 points (-0.18%) at 5617.5, Nasdaq down 101.2 points (-0.6%) at 17592.12.
• Health Care and Consumer Discretionary sectors outperformed in late trade, leading gainers in the former include Charles River Laboratories that surged 18.80% higher after report better than expected earnings and rising outlook, Cencora +4.82%, IQVIA Holdings +4.62%, Centene +4.36% and West Pharmaceutical +3.92%. Meanwhile, Discretionary stocks included: Deckers Outdoor +3.27%, NIKE +2.51% and Best Buy +2.40%.
• Consumer Services and Information Technology sectors continued to underperform, interactive media and entertainment shares weighing on the former. Notably, Alphabet trades -8.02% on the back of Apple's Cue, who talks up that they're exploring adding an AI search function to their native browser - and may select Perplexity or Anthropic as options for the product.
• Laggers in the IT sector included Arista Networks -5.75%, Super Micro Computer -4.68%, Crowdstrike Holdings -4.48% and Apple -1.57%.

• RES 4: 0.5682 High Nov 12 ‘24  
• RES 3: 0.6550 61.8% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Apr 9 bear leg
• RES 2: 0.6528 High Nov 29 ‘24
• RES 1: 0.6515 Intraday high 
• PRICE: 0.6460 @ 16:37 BST May 7
• SUP 1: 0.6379/6333 20- and 50-day EMA values   
• SUP 2: 0.6275 Low Apr 14    
• SUP 3: 0.6181 Low Apr 11
• SUP 4: 0.6116 Low Apr 10  

AUDUSD traded to a fresh short-term cycle high on Wednesday before fading. Nonetheless, a bullish theme remains intact. The recent breach of 0.6450, the Apr 29 high, confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the current sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting an uptrend. Sights are on 0.6528, the Nov 29 ‘24 high. Initial key support to monitor is 0.6333, the 50-day EMA. 

• The US dollar is firmer on Wednesday, as the USD Index continues a consolidatory phase between 99.00/100.00. Losses in G10 have been most pronounced for the likes of JPY, AUD and NZD, while the Swiss Franc has reversed yesterday’s weakness and is among the best performers Wednesday.
• USDJPY remained the key focus for FX volatility on Wednesday, where initially a positive reaction to US/China talks progress prompted a firm recovery from the 142.40 lows to around 143.20 overnight in Asia. Following the release of the Fed statement, some dovish caveats and comments from Trump on not rolling back China tariffs saw USDJPY briefly slip back below 143.00. However, this sentiment was short-lived, and Chair Powell’s nod to a patient approach and awaiting further clarity prompted a swift reversal to fresh session highs. The pair is pushing 143.85 as we approach the APAC crossover.
• For AUDUSD, today’s 1.0% decline stalls a prior 3-day winning streak that prompted the pair to print fresh recovery highs at 0.6515. The recent breach of 0.6450, the Apr 29 high, confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the current sequence of higher highs and higher lows.
• Late gains for the dollar helped EURUSD slip to session lows just above the 1.13 handle, whole cable also now trades below 1.33.
• The Swiss Franc notably outperforms on a relative basis. We have noted that recent recovery highs for USDCHF matched perfectly with the prior breakdown point of 0.8333, the 2023 low, likely helping the resumption of weakness in recent sessions. Furthermore, the pair briefly dipped below a couple of daily lows from late April around the 0.8200 mark, keeping bearish conditions firmly intact for now.
• Focus on Thursday turns to other G10 central banks, with decisions from Sweden, Norway and the Bank of England all scheduled. Jobless claims highlight the US calendar.