AMERICAS OIL: US OIL: October 17 - Americas Midday Oil Summary: Crude Higher

US OIL: October 17 - Americas Midday Oil Summary: Crude Higher   

WTI crude prices are edging higher today but are set for a third successive weekly fall due to market surplus risks amid rising global supply and US-China trade tensions. Trump’s comments on China tariffs provided some relief.

• US China trade tensions challenge global growth assumptions, while focus remains on future Russian supply. Trump said China tariffs are unlikely to be sustained at higher levels if 100% tariffs are applied.
• Trump said in a Truth Social post that he had concluded a call with Russian president Putin, saying “great progress was made.” Trump said he would hold a second meeting with Putin “within two weeks or so.”
• Trump set for meeting with Zelensky today with the widely reported Tomahawks story still at play and whether that would lead to further, more impactful strikes on the Russian refining sector.
• India's refiners have suggested that they intend to reduce, but not halt, the purchase of Russian oil.
• Indian refiners IOC and HPCL have bought Guyanese crude oil from Exxon Mobil in rare purchases from the South American producer, Reuters said.
• China’s onshore crude inventories fell to 1.17 billion barrels this week from a record high of 1.2 billion barrels in mid-August, due to draws in commercial stockpiles, according to Kayrros.
• Softness in oil demand seen in early October persisted into the second week, with both US and Chinese port activity continuing to weaken, according to JPMorgan.
• A bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact and the move down this week reinforces the current bearish theme. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Sights are on $57.50 next, the May 30 low, where a break would open $54.89, the May 5 low. Initial firm resistance is seen at $62.11, the 50-day EMA. Key resistance has been defined at $66.42, the Sep 26 high.
• Patrick DeHaan notes on X that BP’s Whiting facility experienced a fire last night that was extinguished and was actively flaring while alarms were heard in the area
• Cracks are higher amid the disruption at BP’s Whiting refinery though diesel cracks are set for a net weekly decline amid economic fears stemming from heightened US-China trade tensions. Gasoline cracks have been supported this week by signs of limited crude purchasing by the Dangote refinery.
  • WTI Nov futures were up 0.2% at $57.55
  • WTI Dec futures were up 0.3% at $57.16
  • RBOB Nov futures were up 1.2% at $1.83
  • ULSD Nov futures were up 1.1% at $2.18
  • US gasoline crack up 0.8$/bbl at 19.41$/bbl
  • US ULSD crack up 0.8$/bbl at 33.87/bbl