US NATGAS: Hedge Funds Boost Net Bullish Natural Gas Bets to 3-Week High

• RES 4: 0.6428 50.0% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Apr 9 bear leg 
• RES 3: 0.6409 High Dec 9 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 0.6389 High Apr 3 and a reversal trigger & 3.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 0.6383 High Apr 15
• PRICE: 0.6382 @ 16:08 BST Apr 16 
• SUP 1: 0.6243 20-day EMA  
• SUP 2: 0.6116/0.5915 Low 10 / Low Apr 9 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 3: 0.5830 2.000 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.5729 2.236 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing

AUDUSD maintains a short-term bullish tone following recent gains. The pair has breached the 50-day EMA. The break of this average strengthens the reversal and signals scope for a continuation higher, towards 0.6389, the Apr 3 high and the next important resistance. For bears, a resumption of weakness would refocus attention on 0.5915, the Apr 9 low and bear trigger. First support lies at 0.6243, the 20-day EMA.         

Option desks continued to report mixed SOFR & Treasury options Wednesday, vol sellers into rising implieds as derivatives traders readied for an extended Easter Holiday weekend. Underlying futures extended highs after Chairman Powell warned of persistent inflation due to tariffs, exacerbated by uncertain policy. Projected rate hike pricing near steady over the next couple meetings, longer dates gained slightly vs. morning levels (*) as follows: May'25 steady at -4.7bp, Jun'25 at -20.0bp (-21.2bp), Jul'25 at -41.1bp (-40.1bp), Sep'25 -60.4bp (-58.9bp).

• SOFR Options:
  • -3,000 SFRZ5 96.56 straddles, 70.0 ref 96.55
  • Block/pit, total +20,000 SFRU5 96.00/96.25/96.50 call flys, 4.25 net ref 96.275 to -.28
  • -9,000 SFRH6 96.12 puts vs. 96.87/97.56 call spds vs. 96.67/0.46%, 0.0 net
  • -10,000 2QU5 95.93/96.00 put spds, 1.25
  • +3,100 SFRU5 95.62/95.68/95.75/95.87 put condors, 2.25
  • +3,000 SFRU5 95.31/95.68 2x1 put spds, 0.25 net
  • -10,000 SFRU5 96.50/97.00 call spds vs. 95.25/95.75 put spds and +5,000 95.25/95.81 put spds, 8.0
  • 2,500 SFRZ5 96.56 straddles
  • 2,000 SFRN5 96.75/97.25 call spds
  • 4,000 2QU5 96.25/96.75/97.25 call flys ref 96.585
  • 4,400 2QK5 97.37 calls ref 96.655
  • 2,500 0QK5 96.81/97.06/97.31 call flys ref 96.75
  • 2,200 SFRM5 95.62 puts, cab ref 95.94
  • 2,500 SFRZ5 96.25 puts ref 96.53
• Treasury Options:
  • Block, 8,500 TYM5 112.5 calls 31 vs. 110-31/0.28%
  • 5,000 TYM5 107/08 put spds
  • over 18,000 TYK5 110 puts, 8
  • 2,250 TYM5 108/110.5 put spds ref 111-04
  • over 7,000 TYK5 109.5/112.5 strangles
  • over 10,000 TYK5 112/114 call spds, 11 ref 111-01.5 to -02.5
  • +5,000 TYM5 114 calls, 15
  • 5,000 FVM5 108.5/109 call spds vs. 106/106.5 put spds ref 108-09.25 to -09
  • +5,800 TYK5 110/111 put spds vs. 111.75 calls, 4 net/put spd over vs. 111-08.5/0.61%
  • 3,600 FVM5 105/106 put spds ref 108-08.25
  • 2,000 USM5 117/118 call spds, 17 ref 114-27
  • 2,000 FVK5 108.5/109.25 call spds ref 108-12.5
  • 1,600 USK5 99 put ref 114-24

• Stocks are extending lows in late Wednesday trade, retreating after Fed Chairman Powell's outlook discussion at the Chicago Economics Club, risk-off tone gathering momentum as Powell warns inflation may be more persistent due to tariffs, exacerbated by policy uncertainty.
• Currently, the DJIA trades down down 862 points (-2.14%) at 39519.82, S&P E-Minis down 161.25 points (-2.97%) at 5268.25, Nasdaq down 700.1 points (-4.2%) at 16126.69.
• Information Technology and Consumer Discretionary sector shares continued to underperform in late trade, semiconductor makers weighed by Pres Trump's curbs: NVIDIA -10.04%, Advanced Micro Devices -9.33%, Palantir Technologies -8.56%, KLA -7.06% and ON Semiconductor -6.69%.
• Autos and broadline retailers weighed on the Consumer Discretionary sector: Tesla -6.48%, CarMax -5.54%, Amazon.com -4.19% and Williams-Sonoma -4.01%. Elsewhere, MGM Resorts fell 4.64%.
• The Energy sector continued to outperform in late trade, leading oil and gas shares include APA +3.46%, Diamondback Energy +2.73%, Devon Energy +2.59%, Occidental Petroleum +2.25%, Coterra Energy +1.94% and Marathon Petroleum +1.87%.
• Reminder: earnings expected after the close: Liberty Energy, Rexford Industrial, CSX Corp, Alcoa Corp and Kinder Morgan. Thursday's earning's calendar includes: KeyCorp, American Express, DR Horton Inc, Charles Schwab, Marsh & McLennan, Truist Financial Corp, UnitedHealth Group, Blackstone, Ally Financial, State Street and Netflix Inc.