MEXICO: Heath Warns of More Caution on Rate Decisions in H2

Flurry of SOFR call selling and position rolling as underlying futures pare/reverse overnight gains:

• -7,500 SFRZ6 96.75/97.75 call spds, 38.5-39.0
• -10,000 SFRH7 96.75/97.75 call spds, 38.5-38 ref 96.875
• -7,000 0QU5 97.00/98.00 call spds, 23.5 ref 96.935
• +7,500 0QN5 96.75/97.25/97.75 call flys vs 0QU5 97.25/97.75 call spds, 2.75 Sep over

A few analysts have changed their Fed rate cut forecasts since Friday, post-payrolls and considering the macro / market fallout from the "Liberation Day" tariff announcement:

• JPMorgan still sees the first cut in June but now sees cuts at every meeting through Jan 2026: "Even though we have lifted our full-year core PCE inflation forecast by 1.4%-points to 4.4% we continue to expect a first Fed easing in June. However, we now think the Committee cuts at every meeting through January, bringing the top of the funds rate target range down to 3.0%. We continue to perceive that the risk is tilted toward a later start to resumed easing rather than an earlier start."
• TD analysts have pulled forward their forecast for the first Fed cut by one meeting to June (from July), with cuts at each meeting through May 2026 (2.5% terminal). "we continue to expect growth/labor-market dynamics to dominate the policy response... We acknowledge significant risks to this view as policy uncertainty remains high and government decisions remain fluid." (Previously they'd seen 100bps of cuts in H2, to 3.25%-3.50%, and had seen reaching a neutral rate of 3.0%).
• Barclays - post-Liberation Day - as we noted on Friday said stagflation would lead to fewer Fed cuts than they had previously seen: 2x in 2025 (Jun and Sep) and 2x in 2026 (also Jun and Sep, had seen 3x in 2026 but removed a Mar cut from their baseline). That outlook includes two-way risks: "that the FOMC delivers fewer (or even no) cuts if  there is evidence across a number of measures that inflation expectations are becoming unanchored. Conversely, the committee could deliver deeper cuts if the labor market weakens more forcefully than in our baseline".

White House Senior Trade Counsellor, Peter Navarro, told CNBC that US President Donald Trump is “always willing to listen” to countries who want to negotiate on trade. Navarro said: “Countries seeking tariff relief need to lower non-tariff barriers… We want fairness from trading partners.”

• Whilst, his comments suggest that administration is open to negotiations to lower tariffs, Navarro added that, “tariffs will pay for the biggest tax cut in American history,” indicating that he views at least some of the tariffs as durable policy.
• As noted in today’s edition of the US Daily Brief, Navarro - along with Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and White House advisor Stephen Miller - appears increasingly at odds with a more moderate strain of thought within the administration that sees tariffs primarily as a negotiating tool.
• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told NBC, “more than 50 countries have approached the administration about lowering their non-tariff trade barriers, lowering their tariffs, stopping currency manipulation,” but cautioned, “it’s not the kind of thing you can negotiate away in days or weeks.”
• Lutnick told CBS yesterday: “There is no postponing. They are definitely going to stay in place for days and weeks. That is sort of obvious. The president needs to reset global trade everybody has a trade surplus and we have a trade deficit.”
• In the last few moments, Trump again urged Americans to endure some short-term pain: “Be Strong, Courageous, and Patient, and GREATNESS will be the result!”