HUNGARY: Headline Inflation Rate Steady at +4.3% Y/Y in September
Consumer prices were unchanged in September on a monthly basis, translating into a +4.3% y/y annual ...
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STIR: Euribor Futures Off Lows But Post-payrolls Highs Intact
Euribor futures are moving away from Asia-Pac lows alongside short-end EGBs, but Friday’s post-US labour market report highs remain intact across the strip. Futures are flat to -1.5 ticks through the blues versus Friday’s settlement levels at typing.
- EUR STIRs are awaiting Thursday’s ECB decision, which includes an updated set of macroeconomic projections, for fresh cues on the path for monetary policy over the next few years.
- The ECB is unanimously expected to keep rates on hold at 2.00% on Thursday, with OIS markets assigning virtually zero implied probability of such a move. Developments over the summer have done little to push back on President Lagarde's hawkish signalling at the ECB's July press conference.
- That said, the MNI Policy team’s latest sources piece, released on Friday, suggested another cut is still possible if data shows a return of economic weakness or suggests a greater-than-expected inflation undershoot. According to sources, the risk bias among policymakers remains cautiously to the downside as they maintain a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach.
- ECB-dated OIS price 18bps of easing through July 2026.
- Banque de France’s Villeroy is scheduled to speak at 1810BST today, but shouldn’t touch on monetary policy given the ECB is in its pre-meeting quiet period.
- The September Eurozone Sentix survey is due at 0930BST, but isn’t usually a market mover.
| Meeting Date | ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp) |
| Sep-25 | 1.925 | 0.2 |
| Oct-25 | 1.905 | -1.8 |
| Dec-25 | 1.839 | -8.4 |
| Feb-26 | 1.815 | -10.8 |
| Mar-26 | 1.767 | -15.7 |
| Apr-26 | 1.754 | -16.9 |
| Jun-26 | 1.744 | -17.9 |
| Jul-26 | 1.741 | -18.2 |
| Source: MNI/Bloomberg Finance L.P. | ||
EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (U5) Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat
- RES 4: 6600.00 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 6585.83 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 2: 6543.75 2.00 proj of the Apr 7 - 10 - 21 price swing
- RES 1: 6541.75 High Sep 5
- PRICE: 6499.75 @ 07:26 BST Sep 8
- SUP 1: 6451.12/6371.75 20-day EMA / Low Sep 2
- SUP 2: 6353.11 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 6313.25 Low Aug 6
- SUP 4: 6239.50 Low Aug 1 and a key support
A bull cycle in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the latest pullback has once again proved to be a shallow correction. The contract traded to a fresh cycle high last week, breaching the Aug 28 high of 6523.00. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 6543.75 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support to watch is 6447.06, the 20-day EMA.
WTI TECHS: (V5) Bearish Outlook
- RES 4: $77.85 - 2.794 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
- RES 3: $75.65 - 2.500 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
- RES 2: $74.25 - High Jun 23 and a bull trigger
- RES 1: $66.56/69.36 - High Aug 4 / High Jul 30 and key resistance
- PRICE: $62.99 @ 07:25 BST Sep 8
- SUP 1: $61.29 - Low Aug 13 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: $57.71 - Low May 30
- SUP 3: $54.80 - Low May 5
- SUP 4: $54.03 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
A bear cycle in WTI futures remains intact and the latest bull phase appears to have been a correction. The pullback from last Tuesday’s high highlights a possible reversal and the end of the corrective phase. Initial resistance to watch is $66.56, the Aug 4 high. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $69.36, the Jul 30 high. A stronger resumption of weakness would pave the way for a move towards $57.71, the May 30 low.
