JAPAN DATA: Headline CPI Moderates, Core Measures Stay Sticky

TYU5 is trading 111-08+, down 0-04+ from its close. 

• The US 2-year yield opens around 3.84%, up 0.01 from its close.
• The US 10-year yield opens around 4.356%, up 0.01 from its close.
• President Trump: "We just completed a massive Deal with Japan, perhaps the largest Deal ever made. Japan will invest, at my direction, $550 Billion Dollars into the United States, which will receive 90% of the Profits. This Deal will create Hundreds of Thousands of Jobs — There has never been anything like it. Perhaps most importantly, Japan will open their Country to Trade including Cars and Trucks, Rice and certain other Agricultural Products, and other things. Japan will pay Reciprocal Tariffs to the United States of 15%."
• MNI US DATA: Philly Fed Services Sentiment Greatly Improved, Amid Stubborn Inflation. The Philadelphia Fed's Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey continued to show improvement in July, though cost pressures remained elevated. The regional current general activity index rose to a 6-month high -10.3 from -25.0 prior. This was the 3rd consecutive improvement since bottoming at -42.7 in April amid tariff policy concerns.
• Bloomberg - “Trump said he’s considering a proposal to end capital gains taxes on home sales in a bid to boost the housing market. The amount filers can exclude — $250,000 — hasn’t been raised since 1997.”
• The 10-year yield has moved back towards its pivot within the wider range 4.10% - 4.65%, expect supply around 4.30/35% first up. A close back below 4.30% would begin to get the bulls excited once more and the chopfest within the range will continue.
• Data/Events: MBA Mortgage Applications, Existing Home Sales

In post-Tokyo trade, JGB futures closed weaker, -13 compared to settlement levels, despite a good day for US tsys.

• US tsys continued to rally, with yields 3bps lower. The 10- and 30-year rates at 4.344% and 4.917%, respectively. The 2-year yield also fell 3bps to 3.833%.
• "We just completed a massive Deal with Japan, perhaps the largest Deal ever made. Japan will invest, at my direction, $550 Billion Dollars into the United States, which will receive 90% of the Profits. This Deal will create Hundreds of Thousands of Jobs — There has never been anything like it. Perhaps most importantly, Japan will open their Country to Trade, including Cars and Trucks, Rice and certain other Agricultural Products, and other things. Japan will pay Reciprocal Tariffs to the United States of 15%. This is a very exciting time for the United States of America, and especially for the fact that we will continue to always have a great relationship with the Country of Japan. Thank you for your attention to this matter!" (full Trump post via Truth Social).
• Today, the local calendar will see a speech by BOJ Deputy Governor Uchida in Kochi alongside Machine Tool Orders data and 40-year supply.

US gas continued to fall sharply as supply looks likely to rise going forward with the weather turning milder, while European prices were moderately higher as it remains dependent on global developments as it builds inventory ahead of year end.

• US natural gas fell 2.0% to $3.26 on Tuesday as the weather across much of the US is expected to be milder at the start of August. This followed a 6.9% drop on Monday following Baker Hughes data showing nine extra gas rigs signalling an upcoming increase in output at a time of above average inventories.
• Europe remains vulnerable to supply disruptions as it refills storage ahead of winter but progress has been solid. Prices rose 0.5% to EUR 33.33 off the intraday low of EUR 32.90.
• There have been strong European LNG imports with the IEA expecting them to reach a record this year. They have been a major driver of increasing storage levels to around 65% (Bloomberg).
• Strong US LNG supply has been a significant contributor to Europe and has helped to offset increases in gas demand from Egypt and Japan. Cooling demand in southern Europe has also added to global gas consumption.
• The IEA believes that an increase in global gas supply will keep prices contained and drive stronger demand next year, especially in Asia.