AUDUSD TECHS: Has Pierced The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 0.8747 76.4% retracement of the Feb 27 - Mar 16 bear leg
• RES 3: 0.8742 High Mar 31 and Apr 1 and a bull trigger
• RES 2: 0.8731 High May 18 
• RES 1: 0.8682 High May 29
• PRICE: 0.8671 @ 16:50 BST Jun 19
• SUP 1: 0.8618 Low May 25
• SUP 2: 0.8610 Low Mar 16 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.8597 Low Aug 14 ‘25
• SUP 4: 0.8576 Low Jul 2 ‘25  

EURGBP crept higher Thursday, putting the cross at the best levels of the month so far - but still south of May levels. This keeps the consolidation phase intact for now, although trend signals remain bearish. Key support to watch is 0.8610, the Mar 16 low. A clear breach of it would highlight an important M/T bearish breakout. Key resistance to watch is 0.8742, the Mar 31 and Apr 1 high. Initial firm resistance is 0.8658, the 50-day EMA, recently pierced. Clearance of this average would highlight a short-term bullish development.

• We have published and e-mailed to subscribers the MNI US Macro Weekly offering succinct MNI analysis across the range of macro developments over the past week and what to watch out for in the week ahead.
• Please find the full report here: https://mni.marketnews.com/4aXLx1K

• Italy will then look to hold a BTP Short Term / BTPei auction on Wednesday with E2.0-2.5bln of the on-the-run 2.20% Feb-28 BTP Short Term (ISIN: IT0005692410) and E1.50-1.75bln of the 2.40% May-39 BTPei (ISIN: IT0005547812) on offer.
• Germany will return to the market on Wednesday to hold a LT Bund auction with E1bln of the 4.00% Jan-37 Bund (ISIN: DE0001135275) on offer alongside E1bln of the 3.40% May-47 Bund (ISIN: DE000BU2T000).
• Italy will return to the market on Friday with a 5/10-year BTP / CCTeu auction. Details will be confirmed on Tuesday 23 June. We expect the 5-year 3.15% Jun-31 BTP (ISIN: IT0005707614), the 10-year 3.80% Jul-36 BTP (ISIN: IT0005706285) and the Apr-36 CCTeu (ISIN: IT0005707689) to all be on offer, possibly alongside another CCTeu issue. There is an outside chance that a new 10-year BTP is launched at this auction, but we think that is much more likely at the July auction.

NOMINAL FLOWS: The upcoming week will see a single redemption: E14.3bln from a formerly 10-year Belgian OLO. Coupon payments for the week total E8.0bln of which E5.9bln are Italian, E1.7bln French and E0.3bln Austrian. This leaves estimated net flows for the week at positive E6.1bln, similar to this week’s positive E5.8bln ex-retail.