TURKEY: Goldman Sachs See Inflation Rising To Over 90%
- Goldman Sachs sees Turkey inflation rising to over 90%, fall to over 75% Y/y at end-2022 due to base effects (Reuters)
- Goldman Sachs sees "substantial upside risk" to its turkey inflation forecast (Reuters)
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GBPUSD TECHS: Corrective Bounce
- RES 4: 1.2332 High Jun 27
- RES 3: 1.2213 High Jun 29
- RES 2: 1.2125 High Jul 5
- RES 1: 1.2040 20-day EMA / High Jul 19
- PRICE: 1.2023 @ 15:53 BST Jul 19
- SUP 1: 1.1760 Low Jul 14 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 1.1673 1.00 proj of the May 27 - Jun 14 - 16 price swing
- SUP 3: 1.1640 Low Mar 25 2020
- SUP 4: 1.1503 Low Mar 24 2020
GBPUSD has recovered from last week’s lows. Short-term gains however are considered corrective and the outlook is bearish. Recent weakness confirmed a resumption of the current downtrend and this maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on 1.1673 next, a Fibonacci projection. Firm resistance is seen at 1.2040, marking the 20-day EMA as well as the July 19 high. A break would signal scope for a stronger short-term correction.
OUTLOOK: Wednesday Data Calendar, Existing Home Sales, 20Y Bond Auction Re-Open
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- Jul-20 0700 MBA Mortgage Applications (-1.7%, --)
- Jul-20 1000 Existing Home Sales (5.41M, 5.40M); MoM (-3.45%, -0.2%)
- Jul-20 1300 US Tsy $14B 20Y Bond auction re-open (912810TH1)
US: Corporate Credit Update: Risk Metrics At Early June Lvls
Investment-grade corporate credit risk receded to the lowest levels since June 9 Tuesday, metrics cooling as stocks extended gains for the third consecutive session: SPX eminis currently trading +82 (2.14%) at 3916.75; DJIA +572.68 (1.84%) at 31649.35; Nasdaq +272.8 (2.4%) at 11635.69.
- Investment grade risk measured by Markit's CDXIG5 index -4.656 to 86.632; CDXHY5 high yield index at 99.680 (+0.994).
- Outperforming credit sectors (tighter or least wide): Energy (-2.7), while Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Communications and Technology all clustered around -1.9-1.7.
- Lagging sectors (wider or least narrow): Senior Financials and Health Care both -1.2), subordinated Financials (-1.4%).
