COMMODITIES: Gold Remains Close to Recent Highs, Dominant Uptrent Intact
A bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact and the recovery since Jun 24 still appears corrective. The sharp reversal from the Jun 23 high continues to highlight scope for an extension lower. Support to watch is the 50-day EMA, at $65.68. The average has been pierced, a clear break of it would expose $58.17, the May 30 low. Initial resistance to monitor is $69.41, the 50.0% retracement of the Jun 23 - 24 high-low range. A bull cycle in Gold that started Jun 30 remains intact, and this week's gains mark an extension of the recovery. $3395.1, the Jun 23 high, has been cleared. A continuation higher would open $3451.3, the Jun 16 high. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. The bear trigger is $3248.7, the Jun 30 low. An initial firm support to watch is 3282.8, the Jul 9 low.
- WTI Crude down $0.22 or -0.34% at $65.08
- Natural Gas down $0.02 or -0.62% at $3.232
- Gold spot down $2.21 or -0.06% at $3429.63
- Copper up $5.75 or +1.01% at $577.6
- Silver up $0.1 or +0.25% at $39.3871
- Platinum up $6.39 or +0.44% at $1451.53
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COMMODITIES: WTI Futures Hit Fresh Cycle High, Bull Cycle Remains Intact
A bull cycle in WTI futures remains intact and the contract has delivered a fresh cycle high today. Price action is likely to remain volatile near-term, and from a technical standpoint, the trend remains in an extreme overbought position. A continuation higher would expose the $80.00 handle. A firm support is noted at $67.11, the Jun 13 low. A breach of this level would signal scope for a deeper retracement. A bullish theme in Gold remains intact and last week’s pullback is considered corrective. Medium-term trend signals are bullish too - moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Resistance at $3435.6, the May 7 high, has recently been pierced. A clear break of this level would strengthen the uptrend and open $3500.1, the Apr 22 all-time high. Initial key support to monitor is $3282.7, the 50-day EMA.
- WTI Crude down $0.2 or -0.27% at $73.61
- Natural Gas up $0.02 or +0.62% at $3.871
- Gold spot down $6.07 or -0.18% at $3361.99
- Copper down $2.5 or -0.51% at $485.95
- Silver up $0.19 or +0.53% at $36.2127
- Platinum up $28.23 or +2.23% at $1296.87
EQUITIES: Short-Term Bear Cycle in Eurostoxx 50 Futures Still in Play
A short-term bear cycle in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact and the contract has traded to a fresh cycle low today. Recent weakness has resulted in a breach of the 50-day EMA. Price has also traded through 5279.00, May 23 low. The clear break of both support points signals a S/T top and scope for a deeper retracement. Sights are on 5182.00, the May 2 low and 5100.94, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial resistance is 5343.47, the 20-day EMA. The trend condition in S&P E-Minis is unchanged, it remains bullish. For now, the most recent shallow pullback is considered corrective. The contract has pierced support at 6007.80, the 20-day EMA. A clear breach of this average would suggest potential for a deeper retracement and expose the 50-day EMA, at 5906.79. Key short-term resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at 6128.75, the Jun 11 high.
- Japan's NIKKEI closed lower by 49.14 pts or -0.13% at 38354.09 and the TOPIX ended 10.08 pts lower or -0.36% at 2761.18.
- Elsewhere, in China the SHANGHAI closed higher by 21.686 pts or +0.65% at 3381.582 and the HANG SENG ended 158.65 pts higher or +0.67% at 23689.13.
- Across Europe, Germany's DAX trades lower by 0.7 pts or 0% at 23348.23, FTSE 100 higher by 3.44 pts or +0.04% at 8778.08, CAC 40 down 1.39 pts or -0.02% at 7587.47 and Euro Stoxx 50 up 8.75 pts or +0.17% at 5241.86.
- Dow Jones mini up 51 pts or +0.12% at 42565, S&P 500 mini up 14.25 pts or +0.24% at 6032, NASDAQ mini up 61.25 pts or +0.28% at 21904.5.
BONDS: Off Lows As Oil Sells Off
Little net reaction to the flash PMI data out of Europe and the UK, with crude’s move into negative territory (detailed in recent bullets) helping push Bunds and gilts away from session lows.
- German yields 2-3bp higher on the day, light bear steepening on the curve, while UK yields are 1-2bp, light bear flattening on the curve.
- Gilts 1bp wider vs. U.S. 10s, while Bunds are ~1.5bp wider.
- French, Italian, Spanish & Portuguese spreads to Bunds are 0.5-1.0bp tighter on the day, with the bid in equities helping that move, even as EUR 3m10y vol ticks higher on the day (after closing at a multi-month low on Friday).
