COMMODITIES: Gold Extends Gains, Crude Edges Down

Jan-22 19:49
  • Spot gold has risen by a further 0.4% to $2,756/oz on Wednesday, bringing the yellow metal to its highest level since October 31.
  • The gains come as President Trump widened his tariff threats to include China and the EU, with talk of a 10% tariff being imposed on China.
  • The clear break of key short-term resistance at $2,726.2, the Dec 12 high, this week strengthens a bullish theme and signals scope for an extension near-term. Sights are on $2,790.1, the Oct 31 all-time high.
  • Meanwhile, WTI lost some ground on the day, with outages on the US gulf coast bearish for oil. However, it has struggled for clear direction, with earlier movement driven by Trump comments towards the war in Ukraine.
  • WTI Mar 25 is down by 0.5% at $75.4/bbl.
  • The prospect of 25% tariffs on imports from Canada starting February 1 is an upside risk to US fuel prices.
  • The trend structure in WTI futures remains bullish despite the latest pullback, with attention on $79.48, the Apr 12 ‘24 high.
  • Support to watch is the 20-day EMA, at $74.20.
  • Henry Hub has surged today, supported by updated weather forecasts of colder temperatures ahead.
  • US Natgas Feb 25 is up by 5.8% at $3.97/mmbtu.

Historical bullets

US STOCKS: Late Equities Roundup: Chip Stocks, Interactive Media Helps Rebound

Dec-23 19:38
  • Information Technology and Communication Services sectors continued to outperform Monday, helping major averages climb off this morning's lows, S&P Eminis nearing last Friday's early highs. Currently, the DJIA trades down 41.8 points (-0.1%) at 42801.29, S&P E-Minis up 24.25 points (0.4%) at 6026.5, Nasdaq up 170.5 points (0.9%) at 19744.49.
  • Semiconductor makers continued to lead gainers in the second half with Broadcom gaining 5.39%, Advanced Micro Devices +4.75% after Rosenblatt named AMD, Meta and Micron as it's top picks for the first half of 2025. Meanwhile, Microchip Technology +4.07%, Monolithic Power +3.99% while Nvidia and Intel gained 3.50% and 3.40% respectively.
  • Interactive media and entertainment shares buoyed the Communication Services sector with the aforementioned Meta gaining 2.46%, Alphabet +1.58%, News Corp +0.854%.
  • Consumer Staples and Materials sectors continued to underperform in the second half, retail distribution shares lagging into the Christmas holiday: Walgreens Boots Alliance -3.30%, Dollar General -3.14%, Walmart -2.16%.
  • Chemicals and mining shares weighed on the Mining sector: International Flavors & Fragrances -1.47%, FMC Corp and Corteva both -1.55%, while Newmont traded -0.47%.

USDJPY TECHS: MA Studies Highlight A Dominant Uptrend

Dec-23 19:30
  • RES 4: 160.00 Round number resistance   
  • RES 3: 159.45 High Jul 12
  • RES 2: 159.26 0.618 proj f the Sep 16 - Nov 15 - Dec 3 price swing  
  • RES 1: 157.93 High Dec 20 
  • PRICE: 157.13 @ 16:38 GMT Dec 23
  • SUP 1: 155.89/153.36 High Nov 20 / 20-day EMA
  • SUP 2: 152.13/150.90 50-day EMA / Low Dec 10  
  • SUP 3: 149.37 Low Dec 06 
  • SUP 4: 148.65 Low Dec 03 and the bear trigger

USDJPY bullish conditions remain intact and last week’s strong gains reinforce current conditions. The breach of 156.75, the Nov 15 high and a bull trigger, confirms a resumption of the uptrend and opens 159.45, the Jul 12 high. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a clear dominant uptrend. Initial firm support is 153.36, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective.     

NATO: Israel-Egypt Gas Flows Exceed 1bcf/d in Nov: MEES

Dec-23 19:02

Egypt’s imports of Israeli gas hit an 8-month high of 1.02 bcf/d in November, according to MEES.

  • This helped Cairo to cut its need for spot LNG cargoes, with several cargoes due for Q4 delivery pushed into Q1 2025.
  • This was the first time Egypt’s imports of Israeli gas exceeded 1 bcf/d since hitting a record 1.065 bcf/d in April.
  • Flows fell below 900 mcf/d for June and July amid Israel’s own summer power peak demand, MEES said.

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