BUNDS: German Supply will be the early focus
- Yesterday saw the most impressive session since NFP in German Govies, and especially in the longer end part of the Curve, as the 30yr Yield spiked to a 14yrs high.
- Fiscal loosening policy, Borrowing outlook, and expectation of Issuance increase next Year have all been suggested.
- But the timing of the move was still surprising given the US CPI, and likely caught longs, which exacerbated the big price action.
- Some of the argument of the steepening moves in the US, was that short term inflation is seen falling, keeping the door Open for a Fed cut in September, but the overall price action was all German led.
- Back to Germany, both Bund and the Buxl are off Yesterday's lows, but are still trading below levels seen pre US NFP (1st August).
- Immediate support is at 128.84, the July low, and small resistance moves down to 129.50 initially.
- On the Data front for Today, there's only the Spanish Final CPI following the inline German CPI released earlier, early focus will be on the german Supply.
- SUPPLY: Germany €5bn Bund (equates to ~41.9k Bund) should weigh.
- SPEAKERS: Fed Barkin, Goolsbee, Bostic.
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BRENT TECHS: (U5) Gains Considered Corrective
- RES 4: $85.00 - Round number resistance
- RES 3: $81.99 - 2.764 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
- RES 2: $80.72 - 2.618 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
- RES 1: $72.66/79.40 - 50.0% of the Jun 23-30 range / High Jun 23
- PRICE: $68.87 @ 07:06 BST Jul 11
- SUP 1: $65.92 - Low Jun 30
- SUP 2: $61.39 - Low May 30
- SUP 3: $58.00 - Low May 5
- SUP 4: $57.70 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
Short-term conditions in Brent futures remain bearish and gains since Jun 30 are - for now - considered corrective. The contract traded sharply lower on Jun 23, highlighting a bearish theme. The 50-day EMA has been breached and note too that $66.17, 61.8% of the May 5 - Jun 23 bull leg, has been pierced. A resumption of the downtrend would expose $61.39, the May 30 low. Initial resistance to watch is $72.66, a Fibonacci retracement point.
BTP TECHS: (U5) Monitoring Support
- RES 4: 122.71 2.764proj of the May 14 - 20 - 21 price swing
- RES 3: 122.35 2.500 proj of the May 14 - 20 - 21 price swing
- RES 2: 122.00 Round number resistance
- RES 1: 120.67/121.73 20-day EMA / High Jun 13 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 120.04 @ Close Jul 11
- SUP 1: 119.92 Low Jul 11
- SUP 2: 119.48 Low May 26
- SUP 3: 118.87 Low May 21
- SUP 4: 118.51 Low May 14 and key support
The trend condition in BTP futures is unchanged, it remains bullish and the latest pullback appears corrective - for now. However, note that the contract has pierced support at 120.09, the Ju 23 low. A clear break of this level would signal scope for a deeper retracement, potentially towards 118.87, the May 21 low. On the upside, key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at 121.73, the Jun 13 high. Clearance of this hurdle would resume the uptrend.
UK DATA: KPMG-REC Report on Jobs: Hard to find anything positive here
- Governor Bailey's interview published late last night will of course be the biggest domestic factor for UK markets this morning, but the release of the KPMG-REC Report on Jobs for June was also significant.
- The Report showed that the supply of labour (for both permanent and temporary jobs) expanded at the fastest pace since November 2020 and that permanent placements dropped at the fastest pace in 22 months.
- Wage increases continued to remain a little on the soft side with the report noting that wage growth was "notably weaker than historical trends."
- Vacancies also continued to fall in June, at a faster pace than May (but slightly slower pace than April).
- Overall, there is little in this report to provide any real positive signs. And with the MPC continuing to place increasing emphasis on the labour market (and non-headline ONS data) this is another dovish leaning report, likely exacerbating the market's concern following the dovish Bailey interview.
