JGBS: Futures Up Post Softer Tokyo CPI, Offsetting Negative US Tsy Lead

The Sep JGB future finish up at 137.33, -.03 versus settlement levels post yesterday's Tokyo close. The intra-session low from yesterday was at 137.22, which was sub late July lows. Focus remains on downside risks to futures, with the 10yr JGB yield biased higher amid fiscal concerns/lack of bond demand. In terms of technicals, a test lower would signal scope for an extension towards 136.57, a Fibonacci projection. 

• As noted yesterday: "Japan's Ministry of Finance made an initial request of 32.4 trillion ($219 billion) for next fiscal year's debt financing needs, reflecting the impact from rising Japanese bond yield The requested amount was up around 15% from the previous fiscal year's initial budget" (via BBG).
• While BBG added: "Investors are getting so desperate to lighten their holdings of Japanese government bonds that some are willing to sell the securities at a discount to the central bank." (see this link for more details).
• In terms of cash JGB yields, the 10yr finished up yesterday at 1.63%, which was a fresh high back to 2009, while the 10yr swap rate was around 1.44%.
• The local data calendar remains empty today, with focus on Friday's August Tokyo CPI print. Note that tomorrow we hear from BoJ board member Nakagawa who will deliver a speech in Yamaguchi. 

Gold rose on news that President Trump was removing Fed Governor Cook and then added to these gains during the US session. It was up 0.8% to $3393.57/oz, close to the intraday peak, and 3.2% higher this month. It has started today around $3392.2. It was supported by a lower US dollar (BBDXY-0.2%) and lower Treasury yields. If the Fed is skewed with dovish members, then more easing is likely which is positive for non-interest bearing bullion.

• The interference in Fed independence drove safe-haven flows into gold. There has been constant pressure from the administration for the Fed to cut rates. If Trump can replace Cook, then he can have four of the seven FOMC members and possibly engineer more dovish monetary policy.
• Lisa Cook said Trump doesn’t have the authority to fire her. The Fed said it will abide by the decision of the court on whether she behaved unethically.
• Silver rose 0.1% to $38.611 off the intraday low of $38.340. It is now up 5.2% this month. It currently around $38.688.
• Equities were mixed with the S&P up 0.4% but Euro stoxx down 1.1%. The S&P e-mini is currently +0.1%. Oil prices were weaker with WTI -2.3% to $63.31/bbl. Copper fell 0.1%. 

Aussie government bond futures are little changed in the first part of Wednesday dealings. 10yr futures (XM) were last at 95.665, while 3yr futures (YM) were at 96.59, down a touch. This leaves us within recent ranges for both benchmarks. 

• For ACGB yields, we are also little changed in the first part of Wednesday dealing. Front end yields are up a touch, but gains are less than 1bps at this stage. This comes despite softness in front end US yields in Tuesday trade, as the market reacted to Trump's attempt to remove Fed Governor Cook from her position.
• The 3yr ACGB yield was last near 3.40%, while the 10yr was close to 4.31%.
• On the data front today we have July CPI. Headline inflation is forecast to rise back to 2.3% y/y after falling to 1.9%. This would be the highest since April. The series continues to be impacted in both directions by state and federal electricity rebates. The trimmed mean moderated to 2.1% in June. The July data won’t include updates on most of the services components.
• Components that feed into Q2 GDP released on September 3 will also be released with construction work done out today. It is forecast to rise 1.0% q/q after a flat Q1.