AUDUSD TECHS: Fresh Cycle Low

• RES 4: 187.95 High Apr 17 and a key M/T bull trigger 
• RES 3: 187.47 High Jul 29 and a key resistance  
• RES 2: 186.65 0.764 proj of the Aug 3 - 1- 12 price swing
• RES 1: 186.02 High Aug 21 
• PRICE: 185.61 @ 20:06 BST Aug 31
• SUP 1: 184.81/183.16 50-day EMA / Low Aug 12 
• SUP 2: 181.33 Low Aug 7 
• SUP 3: 179.37 Low Aug 3 and key support
• SUP 4: 178.82 High Oct 30 2025

EURJPY remains in consolidation mode and is trading closer to its latest highs. The cross has recently breached 185.56, 76.4% of the Jul 23 - Aug 3 bear leg. That break strengthens the short-term corrective bounce and exposes resistance at 187.47, the Jul 29 high. On the downside, a reversal would signal the end of the corrective phase and highlight a resumption of the recent bearish threat. First support to watch lies at 184.81, the 50-day EMA.

• RES 4: 161.92 76.4% retracement of the Jul 23 - Aug 3 bear leg
• RES 3: 161.28 Low Jul 10 
• RES 2: 160.64 61.8% retracement of the Jul 23 - Aug 3 bear leg
• RES 1: 160.20 High Aug 28 and 31
• PRICE: 159.78 @ 20:02 BST Aug 31
• SUP 1: 158.03/156.68 Low Aug 20 / 7
• SUP 2: 155.23 Low Aug 20 / 3 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 155.04 Low May 6 and a key support 
• SUP 4: 154.00 Low Feb 23  

A S/T bull cycle in USDJPY remains in play as the pair retraces the sell-off between Jul 23 - Aug 3. Price has traded through both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. A continuation higher would open 160.64, a Fibonacci retracement point and an important resistance too. Note that moving averages are in a bear-mode position and this highlights a dominant bear theme. First support to watch is 158.03, the Aug 20 low. A break would signal a bear reversal.

SOFR & Treasury options trade outlined below: Mixed positioning on lighter overall volume, few standout trades include large 10Y Call buyer. Projected rate hike pricing gained slightly in Sep& Oct vs. late Friday levels (*): Sep'26 at +16.3bp (+14.3bp), Oct'26 at +23.1bp (+22.1bp), Dec'26 37.3bp (+37.6bp), Jan'27 42.1bp (44.1bp).

• SOFR Options:
  • +10,000 SFRM7 97.00/97.25 call spds, 1.12
  • +10,000 SFRU6 96.06/96.12/96.25/96.31 Iron Condor, 2.87
  • +3,000 OQU6 95.87/96.00 call spds, 1.5 ref 95.74
  • +5,000 SFRV6 95.75/95.77/96.00 put trees, 2.75 ref 95.91 to -.915/0.10%
  • +1,000 SFRH7 95.81 straddles, 47 ref 95.79
  • +3,000 SFRX6 96.12/96.18/96.25/96.31 call condors, 1.0 vs. 95.905/0.05%
  • -5,000 OQV6 96.06/96.31 put spds w/ OQH7 96.00/96.25 call spds, 29.5 total
  • +5,000 OQH7 95.87/96.25/96.62 call flys, 7.0 ref 95.815
  • +2,000 3QZ6 95.50/96.00 2x1 put spds, 14 vs. fut 95.81/0.22%
  • +2,500 SFRM7 95.68/95.81 put spds, 6.0 ref 95.735
  • -2,000 OQZ6 96.37/96.87/97.37 call flys, 2.0 vs. 95.790.05%
  • -10,000 SFRU6 96.125/96.1875/96.25 call flys, .75 vs. 96.11/0.05%
  • -2,000 SFRZ6 96.12/96.3125/96.50 put flys, 3.5 ref 95.925
  • +5,000 OQX6/OQZ6 95.75/96.00/96.25 call fly strips, 11.75 ref 95.785
  • +2,000 SFRV6 96.18/96.25 call spds, 0.5 vs. 95.90/0.05%
  • +2,000 SFRZ6 95.31/95.56 put spds 1.0 over 96.18/96.37 call spds
  • +2,000 SFRU6 96.00/96.06/96.12 put flys, 1.5
  • -3,000 SFRZ6 96.06 calls, 7.75 ref 95.912
• Treasury Options:
  • 25,000 Thu wkly 10Y 107.25/107.5 put spds ref 107-21.5
  • 10,000 TYV6 107.5 puts, 29
  • 10,000 TYX6 107.5/108.5 2x1 put spds, 14 net ref 107-22
  • 4,000 FVV6 105.75 puts, 24.5 ref 105-24
  • 5,000 TYV6 108.5/109.5 2x1 put spds
  • 9,500 FVV6 105.25 puts, 12, total volume over 24.5k
  • 1,500 TUZ6 102.5/103.25 strangles
  • 3,000 USZ6 115/116/117/118 call condors
  • Update, over +48,000 TYV6 108 calls, 31 vs. 107-29.5/0.48%
  • -2,100 USV6 115 calls, 3 ref 109-07
  • +2,500 wk1 US 111 calls, 3 (exp 9/4)
  • +4,000 wk1 TY 108.5/108.75 call spds, 3 (exp 9/4)
  • +2,000 wk1 TY 108.5 puts, 40 rvs. 107-30.5/0.81% (exp 9/4)
  • -4,000 TYZ6 109/110 call spds, 28 ref 107-28/0.15%
  • +1,250 TYV6 107/108 2x1 put spds, 10 ref 107-30.5