BRAZIL: FRANCE-Lula & Macron Hold Call Amid EU-Mercosur FTA Delay

Aug-20 14:35

French President Emmanuel Macron has held an hour-long phone call with his Brazilian counterpart Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, with topics of conversation including the US' tariff regime, the prospective EU-Mercosur trade deal, and the situation in Ukraine, according to a Brazilian gov't readout

  • Relations between Paris and Brasilia remain strained as France continues to push for a reopening of the EU-Mercosur trade agreement, finalised in Dec 2024. The statement says the two leaders, "committed to finalizing the dialogue with a view to signing the MERCOSUR-European Union Agreement this semester, during Brazil's presidency of the bloc."
  • The EU has yet to send the agreement to member states for ratification, with focus throughout the summer on reaching a deal with the US. However, the French gov't is seen as a major obstacle to its final approval and enactment.
  • Valor International reported in late July, "According to some observers in Europe, France will never be satisfied with the Mercosur deal. Previously, it demanded guarantees around compliance with the Paris Agreement. Now it is pushing for a new agricultural safeguard. If that were granted, Paris would likely raise another issue. In practice, the French government is always seeking more time. The problem in France is purely a domestic political issue. Behind closed doors, parts of the French government acknowledge that the Mercosur deal is beneficial—especially amid the current geopolitical turbulence. But Macron took a hard line in opposing the agreement and now faces difficulty in walking that back."

Historical bullets

MNI: BOC OUTLOOK SURVEY: FUTURE SALES GROWTH BALANCE OF OPINION +6

Jul-21 14:35
  • MNI: BOC OUTLOOK SURVEY: FUTURE SALES GROWTH BALANCE OF OPINION +6
  • BANK OF CANADA BUSINESS OUTLOOK SURVEY OVERALL INDICATOR -2.42
  • BOC: CONSUMERS SEE INFLATION AT 3.82% NOW, 4.04% IN 1 YEAR

BOC SAYS EXPORTERS LESS PESSIMISTIC ABOUT THE HIT FROM TARIFFS

Jul-21 14:30
  • BOC SAYS EXPORTERS LESS PESSIMISTIC ABOUT THE HIT FROM TARIFFS
  • BOC: PERCENTAGE OF FIRMS SEEING +3% CPI OVER 2Y STEADY AT 23%
  • BOC SAYS % OF FIRMS SEEING 2-3% INFLATION UP TO 51% FROM 44%
  • CONSUMER VIEW OF CPI IN 1 YEAR LITTLE CHANGED AT 4%
  • BOC NEW CONSUMER SENTIMENT INDEX FELL FOR A 2ND QTR ON TARIFFS
  • BOC: TWO-THIRDS OF CONSUMERS, 28% OF FIRMS EXPECT RECESSION

BOC: BOC Business Survey: Worst-Case Scenario Less Likely to Happen

Jul-21 14:30
  • Firm's outlooks less dire in Q2 with BOC polls showing most executives see the worst-case scenarios as less likely to occur given few companies have been directly impacted by tariffs. 
  • Business inflation survey showed 23% of executives expected CPI to be above 3% over the next two years, matching last quarter's levels. Those who expected inflation to be between 2% and 3% rose to Q4 2024 levels at 51% from 44% last quarter.  
  • Recession expectations among businesses declined to 28% in Q2 from 32% last quarter but still above 2024 levels. BOC poll also showed about two-thirds of consumers expect a recession over the next 12 months. 
  • BOC business survey showed average expected wage increase is back to pre-pandemic levels as weak demand adds downward pressure.
  • BOC unveiled new consumer sentiment index, the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations (CSCE) Indicator. The index fell for two straight quarters to -1.07 in Q2 2025 from -0.74 in Q1 and -0.36 in Q4 2024. 
  • Consumer inflation expectations for the coming year were little changed at about 4%. 
  • Surveys were taken before latest U.S. threat to boost tariffs to 35% on Aug. 1.