EU UTILITIES: Fortum: 2Q25 Results       

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SFIZ5 96.50/96.80 call spread, bought for 4.75 in 3k

Futures trade to the lowest level seen since early June in light of the firmer-than-expected CPI data.

• Contract as low as 91.25 before a recovery to 91.35, next support located at the June 2 low (91.16), with bears deepening their technical control.
• Yields 2.5-3.5bp higher, curve flatter.
• 2s remain rangebound.
• 10s register the highest level of the month, nearing the June 9 high (4.673%).
• 30s eye late May highs (5.516%).
• STIR pricing stabilises around 50bp of BoE cuts through year-end.
• Market continues to price in over 80% odds of a cut for August. Governor Bailey’s weekend comments were dovish and centred on the labour market, which increases the importance of tomorrow’s labour market data release and makes for relatively contained reaction to this morning’s data.
• The DMO will issue GBP1.5bln of the 4.50% Sep-34 line via PGT this morning.
• Nothing of any real note from BoE Governor Bailey and Chancellor Reeves (outside of already leaked details) in the Mansion House addresses last night, which will leave focus on adjustments to the CPI release and any spill over from U.S. PPI data.