AUSSIE BONDS: Forthcoming ACGB Transactions

After today’s GDP release, RBA-dated OIS pricing is 12-30bps firmer than last week’s pre-July CPI data levels.

• Q2 GDP rose 0.4% q/q & 2.1% y/y, stronger than expected. Productivity remained poor as it was flat on the quarter and down 0.2% y/y.
• The Q2 national accounts showed that productivity growth remained elusive in Australia and ran at the same level as the average since Q1 2023 – no improvement for more than three years.
• The RBA saw this issue as a source of upside risks to its inflation outlook and the Q2 print will add to its concerns and the list of data suggesting another rate hike may be needed to bring underlying inflation back to the band.
• There are no CPI releases before the 29 September RBA decision and Q3 CPI prints 28 October ahead of the 3 November meeting.
• OIS pricing shows tightening risk across all meetings, with the probability of a 25bp hike rising from 67% (56% pre-data) for September to 142% (130% pre-data) by December 2026.
• Pricing is now 12-24bps bps firmer versus this month’s pre-RBA levels.

Figure 1: RBA-Dated OIS – Current Vs. Pre-July CPI

Source: Bloomberg Finance LP / MNI

The Ministry of Commerce said it will guide the automotive industry towards a rational and orderly cross-border layout with improved service system, Securities Daily reported, after the ministry and two other departments released guidelines on overseas competition and compliance for the industry. The guidelines focus on competitive behaviors such as overseas marketing by automotive companies, as well as compliance efforts in areas such as overseas safety production, quality management, labour protection, and data security, the newspaper said.

The investment income of the national social security fund hit a record high of CNY390.7 billion in 2025, with the return rate hitting a near five-year high of 13.2%, Securities Times reported citing an official report released Tuesday. At the end of 2025, the total assets of the fund amounted to CNY3.8 trillion. Wind data shows that the fund appeared among the top ten circulating shareholders of A-share listed companies, covering a total of 773 stocks, with a total market value of CNY540.2 billion as of Sep 1. The fund's increased holdings in Q2 was anchored in hard technology and advanced manufacturing sectors, the newspaper said.