MNI EXCLUSIVE: Former Fed Staffer English On Rates Outlook After Payrolls

Cumulative 2025 Fed rate cut pricing marginally extended to session highs (a little over 61bp, up 3bp on the day) as Fed Gov Cook notes that last week's Employment Report was "concerning" and could mark a "turning point": 

• "We just received this jobs market report and this is concerning, you know, 35,000 jobs per month over the last three months ending in July. And there were major revisions to May and June. And these revisions are somewhat typical of turning points, which again, speak to uncertainty.... We want to know not just where we've been but where we're going. So if we're at an inflection point, we want to look at data, for example, that speak to inflection points. And it's not always payrolls - the unemployment rate is still a good indicator of slack in the system."
• Nothing here to suggest she wouldn't support a 25bp rate cut at the next meeting.
• We had guessed going into July's FOMC meeting that she was one of the 8 Committee members who were in line with the "median" rate cut projection of 50bp in the June Dot Plot.

• RES 4: 152.31 High Feb 19 
• RES 3: 151.62 61.8% retracement of the Jan 10 - Apr 22 bear leg 
• RES 2: 151.21 High Mar 28 
• RES 1: 150.92 High Aug 1 
• PRICE: 147.26 @ 16:11 BST Aug 6
• SUP 1: 146.67 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 2: 146.62 Low Aug 5
• SUP 3: 146.60 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 145.86 Low Jul 24  

USDJPY reversed sharply from Friday’s intraday high and this is allowing a short-term overbought condition to unwind. While the pullback in prices Friday may have been corrective, the break and close below 147.57, the 20-day EMA, is a concern. A clear break of this support zone would undermine the recent bull theme. A break of last week’s 150.92 high would resume the uptrend.     

• Stocks remain firm late Wednesday, fully recovering from the prior session's sell-off, tech-heavy Nasdaq outperforming. Currently, the DJIA trades up 150.26 points (0.34%) at 44263.27, S&P E-Minis up 48.75 points (0.77%) at 6373.75, Nasdaq up 245.7 points (1.2%) at 21162.15.
• Stocks started to pare losses after White House officials said Apple will announce a commitment to invest another $100B on US manufacturing today. Speculation over whether Pres Trump will announce new Russia sanctions or nominees for Fed governor or BLS head, however, tethered risk appetites somewhat.
• A mix of IT, Consumer Staples and Discretionary sector shares continued to lead gainers in the second half: Arista Networks +17.91%, Assurant +11.94%, Match Group +10.17%, Apple +5.75%, Walmart +4.13%, Target +3.69%, Amazon +3.64%, McDonald's +3.42%, Tesla +3.34%, Kroger +2.94%, Ross Stores +2.85% and Costco Wholesale +2.82%.
• A couple notable IT exceptions bucking the move: Super Micro Computer -19.24% after earning outlook disappoints, while Advanced Micro Devices declined -5.81%.
• Leading decliners included Health Care, Materials and Energy sector shares: NRG Energy -14.01%, Mosaic -12.14%, Bio-Techne -10.34%, Charles River Laboratories -8.10%, Rockwell Automation -7.47%, International Flavors & Fragrances -6.54%, Paramount Global -6.17%, Enphase Energy -5.30%, Amgen -5.16% and LyondellBasell Industries -5.06%.
• Companies expected to announce earnings after today's close include: Corteva, McKesson Corp, Occidental Petroleum, AIG, DoorDash, Fortinet, AppLovin, Lyft, Dutch Bros, Airbnb Inc, Zillow Group, Duolingo, MetLife, APA and DraftKings Inc.