US TSYS: Firmer/Near Lows, Curves Manage to Bull Steepen off Lows
Mar-20 19:24
- Still bid after the bell, Treasury futures look to finish near late Thursday session lows. Rates reversed early morning support after much stronger than expected Existing Home Sales for February, rising to 4.26mln on a seasonally-adjusted annual basis from 4.09mln in January - versus expectations of a decline to 3.95mln.
- Prior to that, Initial jobless claims came in at 223k in the Mar 15 week - which is the reference period for March's nonfarm payrolls report - basically matching the 224k expected (221k prior was rev from 220k). Continuing claims registered 1,892k in the Mar 8 week, a touch softer vs the 1,887k expected though more than offset by a downward revision to the prior week.
- Treasury had extended overnight highs - carry-over support after Wednesday's post-FOMC rally, while weaker European equities spilled over to US stocks, contributing to the move. Brief dip in Tsys overnight as EGBs lagged core peers on incoming supply before the weaker equities spurred risk off bid.
- Curves managed to bull steepen off lows, 2s10s +1.335 at 27.559, 5s30s +1.532 at 54.364. Projected rate cuts through mid-2025 recede from this morning's highs (*) as follows: May'25 at -4.5bp (-5.8bp), Jun'25 at -20.1bp (-21.7bp), Jul'25 at -30.7bp (-31.5bp), Sep'25 -46.9bp (-48.3bp).
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US TSYS/OVERNIGHT REPO: ON RRP Takeup Bounces Sharply From Multiyear Lows
Feb-18 19:21
Overnight reverse repo facility takeup bounced sharply Tuesday, rising $19.0B (most since Jan 31) vs Friday to $77.8B.
- That's the highest level since Feb 10 and for the moment brings takeup above the post-April 2021 lows set last week ($58.8B on Friday).
- Takeup is expected to remain steady from here/head higher toward end-month.
MNI EXCLUSIVE: Ex-NY Fed Senior Trader On Monetary Policy Outlook
Feb-18 19:19
MNI interviews former NY Fed senior trader on the monetary policy outlook -- On MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com
US: Dip In Trump's Approval Rating Could Complicate Legislation
Feb-18 19:17
US President Donald Trump has seen a modest dip in approval since taking office on January 20. According to 538’s approval tracker, Trump currently has a net approval rate of +4.0%, down from +8.2% in late January.
- The dip is approval is likely due to a dip in moderate and soft-Democratic support that helped power Trump’s popular vote victory in November. In particular, several surveys have noted that special advisor Elon Musk and his affiliated Department of Government Efficiency have been poorly received by voters.
- An Economist survey published last week found, “Just 39 percent of adults under 30-years-old… reported a favorable opinion of Trump. That number stood at 50 percent just two weeks ago.”
- Should Trump’s approval dip further, it may impact the decision-making of Congressional Republicans ahead of a critical period for Trump’s agenda in Congress. All legislation in Congress will require the near-unanimous support of House Republicans. Any signal from voters that plans to cut welfare programmes like Medicaid will put moderates or those representing districts with a high proportion of welfare recipients in a challenging position.
Figure 1: Donald Trump Approval Rating
Source: 538
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