US DATA: Far Smaller Trade Deficit As Tariff Front-Running Corrects Abruptly

Core PCE: 

• 2.65% Y/Y drops from 2.96% in Feb for lowest since Jun 2024. However:
• 3.5% annualized over three months vs 2.4% in Dec
• 3.0% annualized over six months

Supercore PCE: 

• 3.25% Y/Y from 3.65% in Feb for lowest since Jan. Recent trends also running hotter:
• 3.9% annualized over three months vs 3.7% in Dec
• 3.8% annualized over six months

• Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
• 04/30 $1.25B *Nordic Investment Bank 5Y SOFR+43
• 04/30 $1B *CoE Dev Bank 3Y SOFR+36
• 04/30 $Benchmark IADB 5Y SOFR+44
• 04/30 $Benchmark BNP Paribas 4NC3 fix/SOFR, 6NC5
• 04/30 $Benchmark Bahrain 12Y 7.5%, 8Y Sukuk 6.25%

Sellside analysts tend to see slight upside risks vs their initial estimates on EZ April Flash HICP (consensus stood at 2.1% headline and 2.5% core ahead of the national-level data released since yesterday, our full preview here) - overall, analysts are looking for for core somewhere between 2.5% to 2.6% now:

• Barclays: "We track EA headline and core HICP at 2.0% y/y and 2.5% y/y, respectively. This is in line with our forecast for headline inflation but 0.1pp higher than our forecast for core due to relatively firm data from Italy and Spain."
• Berenberg: "Eurozone inflation may not (yet) fall all the way to the 1.9% yoy rate we are forecasting for April. The expensive Easter holiday season seems to have contributed to stubborn services inflation in April. As this effect unwinds in May, inflation will likely decline further next month."
• Commerzbank: "We maintain our eurozone forecast that inflation in April is likely to have slightly fallen from 2.2% to 2.1%. However, we see upside risks to our forecast that the core rate has likely remained at 2.4%."
• Goldman Sachs: "We upgrade our Euro area headline inflation forecast for April to 2.12%yoy, from 2.11%yoy previously [2.09% initial]. We also revise up our Euro area core inflation forecast by 8bp to 2.63%yoy [2.54% initial], mostly driven by stronger-than-expected French and Italian core pressures. This would imply seasonally adjusted sequential core inflation of 0.25%mom in April on our estimates."
• JP Morgan: "Euro area headline inflation likely declined a tenth to 2.1%oya, with risks tilted towards a 2.0%oya reading. Core data, meanwhile, suggest that the Euro area core inflation likely increased more than we expected. We thus raise our Euro area core forecast from 2.5%oya to 2.6%."