EMISSIONS: European Ports Call for Swift IMO Framework Adoption, EU Alignment
Oct-03 11:00
The European Sea Ports Organisation (ESPO) is urging IMO member states to formally adopt the Net-Zer...
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MNI: US MBA: MARKET COMPOSITE -1.2% SA THRU AUG 29 WK
Sep-03 11:00
- MNI: US MBA: MARKET COMPOSITE -1.2% SA THRU AUG 29 WK
US TSYS: 30Y Test Of 5.00% Rebutted, JOLTS In Focus
Sep-03 10:57
- Treasuries are modestly lower across the curve, for the most part having remained within yesterday’s range although with 30s earlier extending lows as yields briefly tried to test 5.00%.
- Today sees focus on the JOLTS report but with Musalem and the Beige Book also worth watching from a Fed angle as well as potential headlines from President Trump from 1100ET onwards.
- Cash yields are 1.2-2.8bp higher on the day, with increases led by the belly and 30s lagging.
- 30Y yields earlier topped out at 4.9997% (currently 4.974%) having last exceeded 5.00% on Jul 18.
- Curves again saw fresh ytd steeps overnight before pulling back, with 5s30s hitting 124.6bps and currently at session lows of 122.5bps ahead of the US session.
- TYZ5 trades at 112-03 (-01+) on mild volumes of 270k, having coming close to yesterday’s low of 111-31 but remained within range throughout.
- Yesterday’s low probed support at 111-31+ (20-day EMA) after which lies 111-19 (50-day EMA) with the recent pullback deemed corrective. Resistance is seen at 112-20+ (Aug 28/29 high).
- Data: MBA mortgage applications (0700ET), JOLTS Jul (1000ET), Factory orders Jul (1000ET), Wards vehicle sales Aug
- Fedspeak: Musalem on economy and policy (0900ET), Beige Book (1400ET)
- Bill issuance: US Tsy $65B 17W bill auction (1130ET)
- Politics: Trump in bilateral meeting with President of the Republic of Poland (1120ET, WH press pool)
- Note that the District Court-level decision in Fed Gov Cook's lawsuit didn't materialize yesterday as the judge gave the Justice Department until Thursday to file another brief.
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Recent Gains In Oil Futures Appear Corrective
Sep-03 10:56
- On the commodity front, Gold remains in a clear bull cycle. This week’s gains have resulted in a breach of key resistance at $3500.1, the Apr 22 high, and delivered a fresh all-time high in the yellow metal. The break confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and an extension of the sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The next objective is the $3600.00 handle. Initial firm support to watch lies at $3396.2, the 20-day EMA.
- In the oil space, a bear cycle in WTI futures remains intact and the latest bull phase appears to be a correction. This short-term corrective cycle remains in play and Tuesday’s rally reinforces this likelihood. Initial resistance to watch is $66.56, the Aug 4 high. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $69.36, the Jul 30 high. Clearance of this level would cancel a bear theme. For bears, a stronger resumption of weakness would pave the way for a move towards $57.71, the May 30 low.
