EMISSIONS: EU-UK ETS Linkage May Undermine UK’s Economic Growth
Apr-17 13:08
Critics warned that EU-UK ETS linkage may undermine UK’s economic growth and raise energy bills by £112 per household due to higher carbon costs for gas-fired generation, according to The Telegraph.
- The EU and the UK are expected to work toward re-linking their emissions trading schemes at the EU/UK summit on 19 May.
- UKAs have surged 22% since mid-March on EU-UK ETS relink talks.
- “Analysis shows that we could be heading towards an extra £112 on the cost of living because of European alignment. So long as policy races ahead of technology, this means higher energy bills, fewer jobs and weaker growth,” said Tory MP Nick Timothy.
- “If the Government decides to align with the EU on carbon pricing, it will undermine our Brexit freedoms, economic growth, and even our environmental ambitions,” Sam Hall, Director of the Conservative Environment Network said.
- EUA DEC 25 down 1.36% on the day at 66.06 EUR/t CO2e
- UKA DEC 25 down 0.78% on the day at 47.03 GBP/t CO2e
- The EUA Dec25 premium to the UK equivalent narrowed from €22/t CO2e in mid-March to €11.04/t CO2e on the day.
- Correlation between EUA/UKA for 30-day period remained high at 0.72.
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US: MNI POLITICAL RISK- Trump & Putin Prepare For High-Stakes Call
Mar-18 13:06
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- This morning, US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin are scheduled to hold their first call since Ukraine accepted the terms of a US-brokered 30-day ceasefire agreement.
- Trump told reporters during a tour of the John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts yesterday that Chinese President Xi Jinping would visit Washington in the “not too distant future.”
- UK Business and Trade Secretary Jonathan Reynolds will meet with Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer in Washington today, aiming to strike a deal to avoid Trump’s trade measures.
- Governor Michelle Bowman confirmed in a statement that President Trump has nominated her to serve as the Fed’s Vice Chair of Supervision.
- Senate Budget Committee Republicans will meet the Senate Parliamentarian in the coming weeks for a preliminary assessment on using a "current policy baseline" to score making permanent Trump's 2017 tax cuts (TCJA) at $0.
- Israeli airstrikes in Gaza have killed more than 400 people, puncturing an uneasy two-month ceasefire. The foreign minister of Yemen's Houthi rebels claimed the group "will not "dial down" their military action in the Red Sea in response to US pressure.
- Chart of the Day: The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has produced a model suggesting that Trump’s trade agenda will increase inflation and slow growth.
Full Article: US DAILY BRIEF
GILT PAOF RESULTS: GBP1.062499bln of the 4.375% Mar-28 Gilt sold.
Mar-18 13:02
- GBP1.062500bln had been on offer.
- This leaves GBP18.944bln of the gilt in issue.
RIKSBANK: MNI Riksbank Preview - Mar '25: Time To Hold Fire
Mar-18 13:01
FOR THE FULL PUBLICATION PLEASE CLICK HERE
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Time To Hold Fire
- The Riksbank is widely expected to hold rates at 2.25% on Thursday, with increased domestic inflationary pressures driving a hawkish adjustment in analyst and market expectations since the January decision.
- The March decision includes an updated Monetary Policy Report and rate path projection. We think a flat path at 2.25% throughout the forecast horizon is most likely. Although the January and February inflation outcomes will have a net hawkish impact on the rate path, there are offsetting factors from the details of the reports, alongside soft activity signals to start the year and a much stronger-than-expected exchange rate.
- Additionally, we don’t think there is much to be gained from a communication standpoint in shifting the rate path up a few basis points.
- The analyst previews MNI has seen unanimously expect the Riksbank to remain on hold at 2.25%. Of those who expressed a view on the March MPR rate path, most see a horizontal trajectory at 2.25% as the most likely outcome (in line with MNI’s view), with slight upside risks.
- Most of a hawkish Riksbank pivot is already priced into markets. As such, we view the risks to the March decision for SEK FX as quite balanced.
